Coronavirus UK: No10 says social distancing remains in place this weekend

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Bank holiday barbecues and beach trips will remain forbidden over what is expected to be a weekend of glorious weather as Downing Street insisted social distancing measures remain in place even as Boris Johnson prepares to start easing lockdown. 

Temperatures are due to hit almost 80F in the next few days, with the Prime Minister expected to use an address to the nation on Sunday night to set out how he intends to begin lifting draconian restrictions. 

But Mr Johnson today told Cabinet that the government will be proceeding with ‘maximum caution’ as ministers try to get the UK back to something resembling normal life.

And Downing Street confirmed this afternoon that Britons desperate for freedoms to return will wait a little while longer.

The Prime Minister’s Official Spokesman told reporters: ‘The social distancing rules remain in place and we would ask everyone to respect them, just as they have so far.’ 

Parts of the country are forecast to be hotter than some of Europe’s top tourist destinations including Monaco and Corfu tomorrow before Arctic air brings wintry showers on Sunday and Britain goes back to work next week.   

Furious Nicola Sturgeon today laid into Boris Johnson over plans to ease lockdown – warning that ditching ‘stay at home’ guidance at this point would be ‘catastrophic’. 

The First Minister took an axe to the UK’s united front on coronavirus as she insisted there can be no loosening at all for at least another week – and suggesting it will be largely unchanged in Scotland for the rest of the month. 

The PM is expected to set out the next phase of the response to the crisis in an address to the nation on Sunday night. He said yesterday that ‘easements’ will be outlined to the restrictions. 

Downing Street played down the extent of the changes this afternoon, saying Mr Johnson told the Cabinet there would be ‘maximum caution’. The PM’s official spokesman also warned the public against having barbecues on the sunny Bank Holiday weekend, stressing that for now ‘social distancing rules remain in place and we would ask everyone to respect them’. 

But ministers have made clear the ‘stay at home’ mantra will be replaced with a more nuanced approach, while more people will be urged to return to work where possible. 

Ms Sturgeon told a briefing in Edinburgh today that Mr Johnson had so far told her nothing about the proposals, and Cobra meetings had been delayed.

She warned that the crucial ‘R’ number, for how much the virus is replicating in the country, could be ‘hovering around one’ – meaning it is close to growing again – and appeared to be worse in Scotland.  

Again pre-empting the Westminster government’s actions, with the results of a formal lockdown review due to be announced tonight, Ms Sturgeon said: ‘Our assessment of the evidence leads me to the conclusion that the lockdown must be extended at this stage.’ 

Meanwhile, Labour’s  Keir Starmer has suggested lockdown must stay in place until testing capacity is much higher – after daily numbers slumped below 100,000 again. He said a track and trace regime was critical for controlling the outbreak, and ‘if that’s going to happen the planning needs to go in now because we need many many more tests than we’ve got already’.

A poll for MailOnline has also highlighted the challenge ‘coronaphobia’ will pose to the government getting the country running again.  

The research by Redfield and Wilton Strategies found 62 per cent of Britons are more worried about the effects of the draconian curbs ending too early, while 38 per cent say their main concern is the havoc they are wreaking on the economy now. 

Around seven in 10 believe bus and train drivers, teachers, and medical staff should have the right to refuse to go back to work, even if the government says it is safe. Some 60 per cent say the state should keep covering a proportion of people’s wages even if in theory they should be able to resume their jobs. 

In other breakneck developments in the coronavirus crisis today:

• England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have announced a further 464 coronavirus victims in NHS hospitals; 
• The PM will address the nation to announce plans for the next phase of lockdown at 7pm on Sunday night; 
• Chancellor Rishi Sunak has announced a £32million funding injection so doctors and chemists can stay open over the May bank holiday tomorrow; 
• Ministers are facing demands to get a refund on PPE equipment they boasted about sourcing from Turkey after it emerged it has failed safety standards; 
• Ministers have blamed the dramatic fall in daily tests from 122,000 to 69,000 on a ‘technical issue’, despite complaints that the figures were manipulated to make it look as it Matt Hancock’s target was hit last week; 
• Being obese may double the risk of needing hospital treatment for the coronavirus, according to a major study. 

The lockdown measures are formally due to be extended this evening, after the Cabinet meets to consider the desperate crisis gripping the nation.

But Mr Johnson is due to unveil the ‘exit strategy’ on Sunday, laying out immediate ‘easements’ to the misery of combating the deadly disease. 

There are claims the stay at home message will be replaced with a ‘be careful when you’re out’ mantra, according to one Cabinet minister, who added that the easing of lockdown will be based on how much each step of the plan affects the rate of infection – or R. 

The government is thought to have drawn up a draft 50-page blueprint to gradually ease lockown in staggered steps between now and October. 

This blueprint is expected to lead to a five step roadmap to see Britain leave lockdown completely by Autumn – but an ’emergency brake’ could be applied if a second wave of the deadly virus arrives.

However, Mr Johnson faces a battle with Nicola Sturgeon and Labour mayors such as Andy Burnham, who have been warning it is too early for major loosening.

The First Minister took an axe to the UK’s united front on coronavirus as she insisted there can be no loosening at all for at least another week – and suggested it will be largely unchanged in Scotland for the rest of the month.  

She told a briefing in Edinburgh today that Mr Johnson had so far told her nothing about the proposals, and Cobra meetings had been delayed.

She warned that the crucial ‘R’ number, for how much the virus is replicating in the country, could be ‘hovering around one’ – meaning it is close to growing again.

Ms Sturgeon said there were signs Scotland’s outbreak was currently fiercer, potentially because it had started later.   

Again pre-empting the Westminster government’s actions, with the results of a formal lockdown review due to be announced tonight, Ms Sturgeon said: ‘Our assessment of the evidence leads me to the conclusion that the lockdown must be extended at this stage.’

She insisted she would ‘not be pressurised’ into lifting measures prematurely, and would act in the best interests of Scotland. 

Ms Sturgeon said: ‘The decisions we take now are a matter of life and death and that is why they weigh so heavily.’

She said lockdown restrictions will not be formally reviewed again for three weeks, although she stressed changes were possible before then.

She suggested no changes at all will be possible for at least another week. 

‘In particular I want to see what our estimates of cases and the R number look like a week from now,’ she said.     

She said ‘media reports’ over the easing of lockdown measures have not been discussed with the Scottish Government but a call with the devolved nations will take place later today.

‘I will not be pressured into lifting measures prematurely,’ she said, adding that she strongly believes that to drop the ‘clear, well understood’ stay at home message could be a ‘potentially catastrophic mistake’.

No10 was frantically trying to lower expectations for the changes today amid the backlash.

The PM’s official spokesman told journalists: ‘You will need to be very clear any easement to the guidelines next week will be very limited.’ 

And Mr Johnson told the Cabinet that they needed to proceed with ‘maximum caution’.

‘Cabinet discussed where we are in the response to the coronavirus pandemic and the review which is being into the social distancing measures,’ the spokesman said. 

‘The PM said that when considering whether there can be any easement of the existing guidelines, that we are not going to do anything that risks a second peak.’ 

Mr Johnson told Cabinet: ‘We will advance with maximum caution.’ 

However, the spokesman effectively confirmed that outdoor activity is one area where there is scope for taking off pressure. 

‘There is evidence of a very much reduced risk of catching coronavirus outdoors rather than enclosed indoor spaces,’ he said. 

In a round of interview this morning, Northern Ireland Secretary Brandon Lewis frantically tried to play down expectations on the scale of the easing, saying ‘although we believe we are through the peak of this virus we are very cautious to ensure that we don’t get a second peak’. 

The MailOnline poll, carried out yesterday as part of the Redfield and Wilton Strategies’ Global Health and Governance Opinion project, suggests public resistance will be a major obstacle for the government in the coming weeks and months.

Some 62 per cent said they were most worried about the lockdown being relaxed ‘too quickly’, while 38 per cent said their biggest concern was about the economic impact of the curbs lasting ‘too much longer’. 

Even if the government loosened lockdown in line with scientific advice, there was strong support for workers being able to refuse to go back.

More than three quarters said they would be behind bus drivers who made the ‘personal decision’ to stay off because of safety fears, with just 16 per cent saying they would not support them.

The poll found the same for train and Tube drivers by a margin of 69 per cent to 22 per cent, while for teachers it was 71 per cent to 21 per cent. The figure for both doctors and nurses was 73 per cent to 19 per cent.

Six in 10 thought the government should continue to subsidise some of the wages of workers who declined to go back, against just 24 per cent who said they would not favour such a move.

The public was more split over whether people should go on strike if they are told to resume work, with 45 per saying they would endorse the step and 38 per cent against.

Nearly two-third said parents fearing coronavirus should not be punished for refusing to send their children to school when they reopen, against 26 per cent who thought truancy fines would be fair.  

Under normal circumstances schooling is compulsory, with parents facing £60 fines if they fail to send their children to school without good reason. Fines double to £120 if not paid within 21 days, and parents can face prosecution if they refuse to pay after 28 days.

Teaching unions have asked for guarantees that fines will be suspended during any back-to-school transition, when many children will still be told to stay at home.

Any return is likely to involve only some year groups going back to school at first to allow for greater social distancing in the classroom. 

Leading expert Professor Hugh Pennington told the Scottish Parliament today that an early ending of lockdown might not result in a second spike of infections from the virus.

In a letter to MSPs on Holyrood’s Health Committee, the University of Aberdeen emeritus professor said he has seen ‘no evidence’ to suggest there could be a rise in cases ‘more virulent than the one we have endured’.

He said while previous flu pandemics have seen second waves of infection more deadly than the initial outbreak, this may not be the case for coronavirus.

He said: ‘In my opinion the more we learn about Covid-19, the more the differences with influenza virus become apparent.’

Speaking of the potential for a second spike, he added: ‘It is far more likely that our situation would resemble that in Singapore, where infections would continue to occur with cases numbers declining but at a slower pace than if controls had been maintained.’

The Prime Minister will host a Cobra emergency meeting with leaders in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland on Sunday in the hope of agreeing a UK-wide approach. 

He is pushing ahead despite admitting the UK’s official death toll, which surpassed 30,000 yesterday and is the worst in Europe, is ‘appalling’.   

Mr Johnson said in the Commons yesterday: ‘We have to be sure the data is going to support our ability to do this. 

‘That data is coming in continuously over the next few days. We want, if we possibly can, to get going with some of these measures on Monday.

‘It would be a good thing if the people had an idea of what’s coming the following day, that’s why Sunday, the weekend, is the best time to do it.’  

Health Secretary Matt Hancock gave a hint as to what could be expected as he suggested cafes with outdoor seating could be allowed to reopen while Communities Secretary Robert Jenrick said the exit plan will look at how a wide range of firms can be ‘adapted’ so they can resume business. 

Mr Hancock told Sky News: ‘There is strong evidence that outdoors the spread is much, much lower, so there may be workarounds that some businesses, for instance cafes, especially over the summer, may be able to put into place.’

His comments are likely to prompt questions as to whether pubs could also be allowed to reopen over the summer if they have a beer garden as some chains suggested customers could order rounds using their mobile phones. 

Meanwhile, Public Health England is said to have told councils across the country to prepare this weekend to shift away from the government’s current ‘stay home’ message to a new slogan.

Unions have also complained that teachers are being urged to come into schools more to get them ready for a return to work – demanding more clarity on what health and safety protections will be in place.

There have been splits in Cabinet over how quickly to ease the lockdown, with some ‘hawks’ suggesting the economy should be prioritised once it is demonstrated that the NHS can cope with coronavirus cases. 

But Mr Lewis said this morning that the mood in government was for ‘caution’. 

‘I would say to people that the current Government position is very clear that where you can work from home you should, we should stay home wherever we can,’ he said.

He added: ‘I would just say to people to not get too carried away with what we may be reading and just wait until the Government guidelines and the Prime Minister’s statement.’

Mr Lewis said: ‘I would really urge caution. The safest thing to do at the moment with this virus and the way it spreads is wherever you can stay home.’

The Bank of England today warned that GDP will slump by 14 per cent this year as coronavirus inflicts the worst recession for three centuries.

In a grim assessment, the Bank said the economy could shrink by nearly 30 per cent in the first half of this year before recovering some ground.

But the impact of the deadly disease will continue to be felt long afterwards. Unemployment could hit 9 per cent before falling back again. 

The overall 14 per cent fall in output estimated for 2020 would be the biggest recession for more than 300 years. 

The Bank says it believes there was a 3 per cent contraction in the first quarter, and sees GDP plummeting by an incredible 25 per cent in the current three month period, before finally clawing back some ground. 

Announcing that interest rates have been kept on hold at a record low of 0.1 per cent, Governor Andrew Bailey said it was acting to ease the effects as much as possible and tried to strike a more optimistic tone by saying there would be limited economic ‘scarring’.  

But in another bleak sign this morning, former Chancellor Alistair Darling warned that the Bank might be too optimistic about the prospects for a quick recovery. 

Speaking on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, Lord Darling said: ‘I think the Government has to be flexible about the furlough plan because if you’re going to get people to go back to work I think it is highly unlikely they are all going to go back to work on day one.

‘We need to have flexibility so people can go onto short-time work and be gradually reintroduced to their jobs.

‘But can I also make another point which I think is important – I hope like everybody else that many jobs come back and people go back to work, but I think we must plan on the basis that some jobs will not come back, at least they won’t come back at anything like an acceptable rate.

‘And that means the Government has also got to announce a plan for jobs.’ 

Lord Darling added: ‘What I do think is the Government’s furlough scheme was a very good scheme, it was just what was needed, but it needs to be adapted now.

‘But we have to accept the fact that it will take time for people to go back to work and the economy is not just going to open up like that.

‘I have my doubts about what the Bank of England are saying today about that – it is going to take time.’

In a round of interviews this morning, Northern Ireland Secretary Brandon Lewis said the figures showed the UK faced a ‘very difficult time’. 

‘This is going to be a very difficult time for our country, it is a difficult time for countries around the world,’ he said.

‘And that is why it is important that, as we start to look at what the other side of the virus might be, one of the key things for us will be looking at how we can safely ensure that people can start to get back to work so that our economy will have a chance to blossom and grow again in the future and as quickly as possible once we’re the other side of this virus.’