‘I’m worried about a second wave’: Matt Hancock warns wave of infections is ‘rolling across Europe’ 

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Matt Hancock today denied stoking up Covid-19 panic and hysteria after he warned a second wave was ‘starting to roll across Europe’ towards Britain and declared there was a ‘real danger’ of the UK being struck by a spike in cases. 

Ministers today confirmed people who now test positive for coronavirus or have tell-tale symptoms will be told to stay at home for ten days, in line with World Health Organization guidance — up from the current seven-day self-isolation period because ‘evidence has strengthened’.

It came hours after it emerged that Boris Johnson — who fears a second wave could strike Britain within a fortnight — told his SAGE advisers and cabinet ministers that he ‘needs to act fast’ and is expected to ramp up quarantine measures at home and abroad within days.

Today BBC broadcaster Nick Robinson repeatedly asked Mr Hancock if he was being hysterical about rising cases in Europe and the UK because infection rates are nowhere near the lockdown peak and are likely to be a symptom of society returning to a new normal. Mr Robinson also asked if he was overreacting because of a fear of repeating mistakes Number 10 made at the start of the outbreak, such as not quarantining travellers from abroad. 

The Health Secretary said: ‘No, it’s not [risking hysteria]. I’m the Health Secretary in the middle of the pandemic. We are absolutely determined to protect this country and it saddens me we are seeing these rises elsewhere but I will be vigilant and we will move fast if we need to because that is what the virus requires and the virus moves fast and so must we.’

Labour MP Chris Bryant today called for ministers to calm down, saying ‘we need a stiletto not a sledgehammer’ to tackle clusters of coronavirus. He said: ‘It makes me so angry the government are so loose with their language. There isn’t a second wave rolling out across Europe. There are worrying signs of individual spikes of increased infection in some areas.’ 

Britain announced another 763 new coronavirus cases yesterday, up 14 per cent in a week — but way below the 5,000 new cases per day that were being recorded at the high of the outbreak. Cambridge University academics believe outbreaks are getting bigger in the stay-cation hotspots of the South West and South East of England but are only slightly worse.

Top scientists today admitted it is unlikely the coronavirus will ever be eradicated, saying it could be around for decades and infect people ‘multiple times over their life span’. Critics argued that Britain needs to ‘learn to live with it’ because the virus is going to keep spreading. 

Business leaders say it is ‘vital’ economies crippled by coronavirus-controlling policies begin the process of recovery this summer ahead of an expected resurgence later this year.

Matt Hancock’s second wave warning came as: 

• Boris Johnson told advisers Britain ‘needs to act fast’ to avoid second wave — with more holiday destinations set to be added to UK quarantine list tomorrow; 
• Sir Patrick Vallance and Professor Chris Whitty want tougher border controls immediately after figures show 1,300 people with Covid-19 entered the UK at the start of the pandemic; 
• England had the highest level of excess deaths in Europe over the coronavirus pandemic, according to data from the Office for National Statistics;
• Leicester’s lockdown will be reviewed today — 48 hours earlier than expected as official statistics show the city’s coronavirus infection rate has halved in a fortnight;
• Up to 21,000 people have died because of unintended consequences of lockdown – many due to a lack of access to healthcare, according to a shocking study.

Covid-19 cases in Britain rose again yesterday, with the Department of Health announcing another 763 people tested positive for the virus, taking the rolling seven-day average to 726. 

In comparison, the rate was 697 yesterday, 638 last Wednesday and has been on the up for a fortnight amid fears of a resurgence. 

However, the number of coronavirus deaths has barely changed in the past 10 days, with the rolling seven-day average currently standing at 66. For comparison, it was 65 on Tuesday and 64 last Wednesday.

Infected patients can take weeks to die from the coronavirus, meaning any up-tick in cases across the past fortnight may not start trickling through until next week.

It comes as Number 10 today confirmed the length of time people with coronavirus symptoms in England will have to self-isolate for is to be increased to 10 days.

Patients who are confirmed to have Covid or who have a cough, fever or loss of sense of smell or taste were told before to stay at home for seven days.

Deputy chief medical officer Professor Jonathan Van-Tam told reporters the change was being made due to the ‘low but real possibility of infectiousness’ between seven and 10 days after the onset of the illness.

Health officials still believe there is evidence shows people with symptomatic coronavirus are most infectious just before and in the days immediately after their symptoms appear.

However, there is also a low but tangible possibility that people with Covid-19 are still infectious between seven and nine days after their symptoms start, which prompted the change in guidance today.

Health chiefs stressed the previous advice was ‘seven days minimum’ rather than just seven days, with people whose symptoms persisted longer advised to remain in isolation for longer.

Scientists today welcomed the move. Dr Julian Tang, an expert in respiratory diseases at the University of Leicester, said: ‘The evidence for this 10-day rather than 7-day cut-off has been around for some months already – and more and more studies confirm this. 

‘There have been concerns about the former 7-day isolation cut-off for sometime now – because it just didn’t tally with the evidence. Finally, now it does.’ 

Mr Hancock also hinted more European countries could be added to the UK’s quarantine list to stop Covid-19 getting a stranglehold in Britain again, after ministers were accused of being too slow to react early on in the pandemic.

He told Sky News: ‘I am worried about a second wave. You can see a second wave starting to roll across Europe. We have to do everything we can to prevent it reaching these shores. 

‘It’s not just Spain, there are other countries too where the number of cases is rising, and we are absolutely determined to do all we can to keep this country safe.’ 

He told the BBC later: ‘There is a real danger of an increase in cases in the UK but we will move fast if needed’.

The quarantine period for people returning to the UK from foreign countries such as Spain would be pared back to 10 days with testing from 14 days under the same plans, it was claimed today. 

Isolation rules have previously caused confusion as those confirmed to have the virus via a test have been told to isolate for seven days, whereas their ‘close contacts’ faced 14 days. The disparity was due to the time taken to develop symptoms of the virus.

The Government has at times been accused of ‘mixed messaging’ over the rules.  

The policy change came after talks between Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, Boris Johnson and senior cabinet ministers at No 10 on Monday. 

Mr Johnson is said to have told them: ‘We need to act fast’ with a ramping up of quarantine rules expected within 24 hours.

The Government’s Chief Scientific Adviser Sir Patrick Vallance warned No10 that Britain could be just two or three weeks behind Spain’s second wave trajectory, according to The Times.

But experts have called on ministers not to over-react to the small spike in cases. 

Professor Paul Hunter, an infectious disease expert at the University of East Anglia, told MailOnline: ‘I do not think we will ever eradicate the virus. I think it is likely that the virus will be around for decades and infect people multiple times over their life span. 

‘However, because of residual immunity from prior infections or immunization, the disease will become far less severe and probably start to resemble to common cold. 

He added: ‘A country like New Zealand that has eradicated the virus will only get infected when they open up again, as they will eventually have to do.’

Professor Keith Neal, from the University of Nottingham, told MailOnline: ‘We need to learn to live with it, the virus is going to keep spreading and causing spikes or clusters unless we keep restrictions or get a vaccine.

‘We may get small resurgences when people’s behaviour gets more lax, but we can tighten restrictions in these hotspots, look at Leicester – disease is falling.’ 

He added the UK can live alongside the virus and keep transmission risk to as low as possible ‘by mask wearing, working from home, travel restrictions, taking appropriate actions in hotspots’. 

Professor Neal said: ‘You’re always going to have hotspots, like Leicester and in Spain. But every measure helps reduce transmission trails.’

The rolling average of daily cases in the UK has been rising since earlier this month, while there have been fresh restrictions in Oldham, Greater Manchester, and localised outbreaks in Stone, Staffordshire, and Wrexham, north Wales. 

Figures yesterday revealed Oldham had overtaken Leicester to have the England. Blackburn with Darwen is still the worst-hit authority in the country.

But NHS data today shows it is back down in third place, with an infection rate of 53.1 cases per 100,000 people during July 21 to 27. 

Leicester’s rate currently stands at 57.7 — up slightly on Wednesday’s figure but down 15 per cent in a week.

Leicester, the first place in the UK to have a mini-lockdown imposed, will have its shutdown reviewed today — two days earlier than expected.

Fears of a resurgence of infections come as scientists found that the coronavirus R rate is above the dreaded level of one in the South West and South East of England.

Government scientists say the UK’s reproduction number — the average number of people each Covid-19 patient infects — is still between 0.7 and 0.9.

But a team from Cambridge University estimate it could be above one in two regions, and on the brink of passing the level in every part of the country except the Midlands.

It is vital this number stays below one, otherwise the coronavirus outbreak could start to rapidly spiral again as people infect others around them at a faster rate.

Academics analyse figures on deaths and cases, as well as data on how many people have antibodies and social interactions, to make their predictions that feed into SAGE.

According to their model, the R rate is the highest in the South West (1.04) — home to the stay-cation hotspots of Cornwall, Devon and Dorset. It is also estimated to be above one in the South East (1.02).

Three other regions — the North West, East and London — have seen a rise in the reproduction rate, which experts say is not an accurate way to measure an outbreak when cases are low.

Scientists blamed the the lifting of lockdown measures, the Daily Telegraph reports. Infectious disease academics warned a spike would be inevitable.

Despite the warnings, Boris Johnson was urged not to panic over fears of a summer surge.  

Former Conservative leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith said ministers should continue efforts to get the economy moving by urging more workers to return to the office. He said: ‘The message from the Government is still really fearful, it needs to be much more nuanced.

‘They must say, ‘Look, this is a disease that by-and-large affects those with co-morbidities. Protect the vulnerable but the rest of you should be getting back to work’.’ Sir Iain added: ‘We seem to have lost the ability to balance risk.’

Meanwhile, health leaders said there were ‘very high’ levels of concern about a fresh spike.  

Niall Dickson, chief executive of the NHS Confederation, told the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Coronavirus that non-Covid productivity in NHS trusts was currently at about 60 per cent.

He called for an ‘Amazon-style’ way for health and care workers to order personal protective equipment where it arrives the next day. 

Dr Chaand Nagpaul, chairman of the council of the British Medical Association, said another spike should not be seen as an ‘inevitability’ and it was time to be ‘more robust’ about mitigating the threat.

He also called for more concise public messaging over measures people can take to stop the spread of the virus.

‘If I look even at something as simple as our messages on social distancing we’re told that social distancing is still two metres, or one metre plus,’ he said.

‘Do you think any member of the public understands what one metre plus means? What does the plus mean? Many don’t really understand this because it’s not clear and they’re not social distancing.

It comes as damning figures today revealed England had the highest level of excess deaths in Europe over the coronavirus pandemic.

By the end of May, England had seen the highest overall excess deaths — fatalities from all causes that are above the level that would normally be expected — out of 21 European countries compared by the Office for National Statistics.

While other countries had higher spikes in excess deaths between February and June, England had the longest continuous period of elevated mortality rate – meaning it had the highest level of excess deaths overall.

Excess deaths include fatalities from all causes, but they can be used as evidence of how severe coronavirus outbreaks have been – because not all deaths caused by the virus are recorded by authorities.

It was Spain and Italy that suffered the largest spikes in excess deaths, called ‘peaks’, suggesting they faced the hardest hits on the continent. 

Bergamo, one of the first places in Europe to go into lockdown, had the highest peak in excess mortality. It saw 847.7 per cent more deaths than usual in the week ending 20 March.

The UK’s highest peak of excess deaths was recorded in Brent, at 357.5 per cent at the height of Britain’s crisis, in the week ending 17 April.

Two top scientists today said that banning foreign travel could eliminate Covid-19 and give Britain the ‘best chance’ of achieving Boris Johnson’s pledge of returning to normal life by Christmas. 

Epidemiologists Professor David Hunter and Professor Neil Pearce believe the virus can be wiped out but would need ministers to ‘change course’.

In a comment piece in The Guardian today, the pair said: ‘Encouraging travel abroad in the middle of a pandemic makes no epidemiological sense. 

‘With every arriving overseas visitor or returning holidaymaker, the risk of bringing Covid-19 into the country increases. 

‘The government has so far justified allowing this travel because it believes community transmission of the virus in the UK is inevitable until a vaccine arrives. It is not.’

Professor Hunter, of Oxford University, and Professor Pearce, of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, added: ‘If we want to avoid a “November nightmare” and have a relatively “normal” Christmas, a push for elimination gives us the best chance.

‘Is elimination achievable? We think it is – though it would require major changes to the British government’s current thinking.’

Younger people could be more at risk of getting coronavirus if the predicted second wave hits the UK this winter, it was also claimed today.

The president of the Royal Society of Medicine warned that the second wave is ‘almost certainly coming this winter’ and could be very different from the first.

Professor Roger Kirby’s warning comes as Boris Johnson revealed a second wave could begin in as little as two weeks.

Speaking on BBC Radio 4 this morning, retired surgeon Professor Kirby said: ‘The winter is coming and almost certainly a second wave of this virus is coming.

‘What we saw in 1918 was the virus change and the second wave was different from the first wave and it affected a different group of people – particularly younger people.’

His theory is based on a similar series of events which happened during the Spanish flu epidemic in the early 1900s and killed 50 million people across the world.

It broke out in March 1918 and mainly affected the older and sickly people during World War I. The pandemic seemed to come to an end in August 1918 but death rates spiked again between September and November.

However, the virus had turned into a new strain which could effect young and healthy people.

Experts now fear that coronavirus could see a similar ‘W curve’ as the Spanish flu – meaning there would be three major spikes in deaths.

Who’s afraid of a second wave? That’s what Boris fears. But as ROSS CLARK points out, the figures just don’t add up – and besides, from treatment to vulnerability, so much has changed since March

For too many months city centres across Britain have resembled ghost towns. 

So the slow awakening in recent weeks, as shops, hair salons, pubs, cafes and restaurants began to reopen, has been a huge morale boost.

The economy might be on life support but there was hope.

Buoyed by this and desperate for a break, tens of thousands of us began flying off to the sun. Family holidays were no longer a lockdown fantasy but a real possibility.

And then suddenly this week the mood changed again.

On Saturday, holidaymakers returning from Spain were ordered into a 14-day quarantine after a spike in coronavirus cases in the country. And we were warned that similar measures may be applied to other popular destinations.

The Prime Minister went further, warning that we face a threat of ‘a second wave in other parts of Europe’ and in the UK within a fortnight after a 28 per cent increase in Covid cases since the start of the month.

That term — ‘second wave’ — will have struck terror into the hearts of many, taking them back to early spring when the daily death toll was in the high hundreds, rising to more than 1,000 deaths a day at the peak in late April.

But is Boris Johnson really justified in using such an emotive term?

It is true that over the past four weeks Spain has seen an increase in numbers of confirmed Covid cases, as you would expect with the easing of lockdown —almost 14,000 new cases to July 26. 

Yet it hasn’t suffered even a slight upwards nudge in the number of deaths — as would be likely if there were a genuine second wave.

Just six people have died from Covid-19 in Spain in the past week — compared with over 900 a day at the height of the epidemic in April.

Moreover, there is a problem in using the number of recorded cases as a sign of a second wave, given that the more we test, the greater the number of cases recorded. And the rise is largely restricted to North-East Spain, especially Catalonia.

So is it possible Spain’s ‘second wave’ could be little more than a statistical illusion?

Since May 10, the country’s daily figures for new cases of Covid-19 have included those diagnosed through antibody tests, which tell you whether you have been exposed to the disease in the past. 

In other words, someone who shows up as a ‘new’ case in Spain today could actually have contracted the infection months ago.

In Britain, by contrast, daily figures for new Covid-19 infections include only people who currently have the disease.

This is just one reason among several that leaves some scientists less than impressed by the Prime Minister’s inflammatory use of ‘second wave’.

According to Linda Bauld, a professor in public health at Edinburgh University, ‘what we are seeing now [in parts of Europe] is essentially localised spikes’, while Paul Hunter, a professor in infectious diseases at the University of East Anglia, says it would take two weeks of a rising number of cases before we need to start panicking.

But even if we do suffer a resurgence of Covid-19, now or in the autumn or winter, there is growing evidence it won’t be as bad as the first wave for the following reasons:

Test and Trace: Health Secretary Matt Hancock’s ‘world-beating’ track and trace phone app might have disappeared without trace after its trial on the Isle of Wight, but we do now have a manual test and trace system in operation.

In spite of teething troubles which left some of the 25,000 staff running the system complaining of having nothing to do, it is working.

In the week to July 15, for example, 355,597 tests were carried out in England and 3,953 people tested positive.

Of these, 3,098 were contacted and 13,034 of their close contacts told to self-isolate for 14 days — although no one knows how many of them did.

It might be far from perfect, but it is better than at the height of the epidemic when people with mild symptoms were told not to bother the NHS — and consequently had no idea whether they had the virus or not.

Social Distancing: It is fast becoming a way of life for millions of Britons and will stop the virus spreading so quickly. Mask wearing, handwashing and the liberal use of sanitiser are also factors.

Far fewer people are travelling cheek by jowl on public transport, too. Compared with early March, rail travel has fallen by 80 per cent, Tube journeys by 76 per cent, London bus journeys by 55 per cent and bus journeys outside London by 69 per cent.

Fewer deaths: Fewer of us are as susceptible to the coronavirus now. 

According to Public Health England’s latest estimate, 6.5 per cent of England’s population (almost 3.7 million) have antibodies to the Covid-19 virus, indicating they are likely to be immune to further infection. 

Many more of us could have some degree of resistance to infection. 

Growing evidence suggests exposure to other coronaviruses, some of which cause the common cold, may offer some degree of protection, reducing symptoms if not protecting us altogether.

Moreover, at the peak of the epidemic in April, many people were dying in care home outbreaks caused by NHS patients being discharged to the homes without being tested.

It was one of the Government’s greatest acknowledged failings and the same mistake is unlikely to be made again. 

We are also better informed about those at greatest risk — people from Black, Asian, and Minority Ethnic backgrounds, diabetics, the obese and frontline workers. Steps will be taken to protect them faster.

Sadly, many of those most vulnerable to the virus — the very elderly, and those with serious underlying heart and lung ailments — have already succumbed to Covid-19.

Better treatment: In the initial stages of the pandemic, there was a rush to boost the supply of ventilators to the NHS in the belief that this was the only effective treatment for people with the most serious symptoms.

Since then, doctors have learned that administering oxygen via a mask — the treatment Boris Johnson received in ICU at St Thomas’ Hospital — is often more effective.

Proning — lying patients on their stomachs to assist oxygenation of the blood — has also proved a simple but effective technique to help seriously ill patients. 

And in June, a team from Oxford University found that a cheap, readily available anti-inflammatory drug, dexamethasone, can reduce death rates among those on ventilators by a third, and among those on oxygen by 20 per cent. 

(It doesn’t help people with mild symptoms.)

Increased data: The Government now has access to data which should allow it to identify places where the disease is accelerating and to impose localised restrictions to stop it spreading — just as happened in Leicester earlier this month and currently in Oldham. 

Moreover, we now have quarantine in place for travellers arriving from other countries — something which didn’t exist in January and February.

Warm weather: Many viruses degrade in warm weather, which is why diseases such as flu tend to be seasonal. Covid-19 seems no different.

In March virologists at the University of Maryland in the U.S. mapped outbreaks of the disease and found they were concentrated where average temperatures were between 5c (41f) and 11c (52f) and average humidity between 47 and 79 per cent — which put Britain in the firing line in early spring.

All in all, while we cannot for a moment relax our guard when it comes to this novel coronavirus, there are reasons to be, if not cheerful, then at the very least, hopeful.