UK coronavirus cases hit their highest level for a Saturday with 6,042 new infections and 20 deaths

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Coronavirus cases in the UK have surged by 6,042 in the last 24 hours – with 34 deaths – as an infectious disease expert warned Britain is two to three weeks away from recording 100 fatalities a day.

Today’s figure takes the total infection toll to 429,277, though it is hard to compare to the peak of the pandemic due to testing being ramped up since then. Top experts now say more than 100,000 people were catching the virus every day at the height of the first wave.

The 6,042 cases in the last 24 hours mark a 1,620-case rise on last Saturday, when 4,422 people were diagnosed with the disease, while yesterday saw another 6,874 infections. Data shows the rolling seven-day average of daily cases has surged by 54 per cent in a week.

Infections were squashed well below 1,000 from late June until early August following the lockdown in spring, but Covid-19 cases have been on the rise ever since. It comes as it was revealed SAGE scientists advising the Government on coronavirus considered a plan to ask everyone over the age of 45 to shield.

The death toll now stands at 41,971, and Government statistics show fatalities are rising in line with infections, which began spiralling earlier this month. On average, 30 Britons are succumbing to the illness each day, 11 more than last week. It had dropped to a low of seven at the start of September.

Infectious disease modelling expert Professor Graham Medley, who sits on the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) warns that it is ‘inevitable’ deaths will head into triple figures because the virus remains ‘dangerous’ to the community.

The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine professor said that if the UK starts recording 10,000 cases a day, and the disease retains a death rate of one per cent, deaths will reach 100 a day.

At the height of the pandemic between April 2 and 18 Britain was recording in excess of 800 deaths a day, while recording around 4,000 positive cases a day. But testing capacity was far behind demand, meaning the vast majority of cases were missed, compounding calculations for a death rate. The World Health Organisation says the death rate from coronavirus stands between 0.5 and one per cent, based on available data. 

Almost a quarter of the UK’s population are set to live under tightened coronavirus restrictions after Leeds, Wigan, Stockport and Blackpool in England and Llanelli, Cardiff and Swansea in Wales were added to the UK’s lockdown list. 

It comes as in other coronavirus news:

• Anti-lockdown protesters clash with police in Trafalgar Square, London, as 15,000 turn out for the march; 
• Welsh First Minister has advised the nation to already behave as though the restrictions are in force – which include a ban on travelling outside of the designated area without a ‘reasonable excuse’;
• Sadiq Khan calls for stricter coronavirus measures in London warning the capital could go the same way as Birmingham, the North West and the North East unless action is taken now. 
• Unions call for in-person classes to be suspended as 3,000 students are put on lockdown for two weeks inside their halls;
• A newlyweds reception party in locked-down Swansea is stormed by police after dozens of guests cram into the enclosed space. 

Speaking on the Today programme Professor Medley said that although treatments had improved, the way the virus is transmitted is ‘going to be different’. 

‘Now whether it is as many – in February and March we were essentially assuming one per cent of infections would lead to deaths. Now even if that is 0.8 per cent, which I think would be a great success in terms of treatment, it still means that we are going to see deaths increase,’ he said.

‘At a level of 10,000 (cases) we are seeing now, means that in three or four weeks we are going to see 100 deaths a day.

‘In order to stop that process increasing again, then we need to make sure that that transmission comes down now because that doubling time will carry on. The things that we do now will not stop 100 people dying a day but they will stop that progressing much higher.’

Britain’s outbreak was initially concentrated in 20 to 40-year-olds, according to official data, but has since spread to older sections of the population that are more at risk from the disease. 

It was suggested those over 45 were at greater risk from the virus, and more likely to die from it, so could be ‘segmented’ from the rest of the population. The suggestion, revealed in papers from SAGE, was eventually advised against, as it was considered unlikely to be successful.

However, it is being kept under review, and news of it follows a similar option drawn up by officials to potentially target over-50s with another lockdown.

The minutes of the 48th meeting of the SAGE scientists, held on July 23, state: ‘Although under-45s are at less risk from Covid-19, including lower risk of death, they are nonetheless at some risk and long-term sequelae (consequences) are not well understood.’

The document adds: ‘Around two-thirds of people in the UK live in a household which includes one or more individuals aged 45 and above. Any segmentation based on this age threshold would therefore affect most households.’

The ‘segmentation’ looked at would have involved those over 45 shielding, which early in the pandemic meant staying at home, and avoiding unnecessary contact with others.

Minutes from July 16 note there is likely to be ‘merit’ in segmenting society by age, particularly ‘to vulnerable people and those likely to have more contact with vulnerable people’.

It continues: ‘Data shows that people tend to have more contacts with others around their own age, but also have a significant number of contacts with those 20-30 years older and younger than themselves (likely to mainly be contacts between parents and children). 

‘There are also significant levels of contact between grandparents and children.’

Figures reveal that children and those aged below 45 are at far lower risk of dying from coronavirus than those aged over 75.

Office for National Statistics data reveals only four Covid-19 deaths were recorded in children aged one to 14 years old in England and Wales, or less than 0.01 per cent of the total. And 574 have been recorded in those aged 15 to 44, or 0.96 per cent of the total.

In comparison, 39,058 people aged 75 and over have died from the virus, or 65 per cent of the total.

The difference led a scientific paper published in Nature in July to conclude that those aged 80 and over are more than a hundred times more likely to die from the virus than patients aged 40 and below.

Despite the gap in risk of death, however, there have been warnings over long Covid, or where symptoms persist after the disease subsides, which could already affect more than 60,000 people in the UK.

On Wednesday MPs called on the Government to address this problem, and admit that it exists, stating they had heard moving statements from those who had recovered but still suffered from fatigue, heart palpitations and breathing difficulties.

Layla Moran, chair of the All-Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) on coronavirus said Westminster must commit further resources to investigating and tackling the problem.

Writing in the British Medical Journal, she said as the number of people suffering long Covid increases the situation will become ‘more and more urgent’.

‘In August, we heard from people living with long Covid and hundreds more sufferers admitted written evidence to our inquiry.

‘Their testimonials were incredibly moving and concerning. What was clear was that we needed to make some urgent recommendations to the Prime Minister; the health, well-being and employment arrangements for those living with long Covid remain unaddressed.

‘And as the number of people with long Covid grows, the situation gets more and more urgent.’

One of the victims was Claire Hastie, who is the founder of the Long Covid Support Group on Facebook.

She described how she used to cycle 13 miles to work but since her Covid-19 diagnosis in March, can no longer walk 13 metres and is now largely confined to a wheelchair with her children providing much of her care.

Dr Jake Suett, a staff grade doctor in anaesthetics and intensive care medicine who also suffers from long Covid, said that since catching the disease he has no longer being able to do 12-hour shifts in intensive care.

‘And now a flight of stairs or the food shop is about what I can manage before I have to stop… if I’m on my feet then shortness of breath comes back, chest pain comes back.’

SAGE minutes have also revealed that the group considered a ‘segmentation and protection strategy’, where vulnerable parts of society are placed into lockdown to avoid a surge in deaths from the disease.

The strategy, presented to the group by Professor Mark Whoolhouse, from the University of Edinburgh, would use an algorithm to identify those most at risk by accounting for age, ethnicity and health conditions.

They would be placed into lockdown, where they are trusted to avoid high risk locations and interactions, alongside a designated carer. This would allow parts of society, such as those who are healthy and of working age, to continue to contribute to the economy.

But SAGE did not advise that the Government follows this strategy, citing ethical concerns. Professor Woolhouse wrote: ‘Segmentation and protection raises ethical questions as some measures are targeted at subsets of the population.

‘However, lockdown also raises ethical questions as the benefits are felt mainly by those same subsets of the population. It needs to be understood that there are no easy options available.’

After seven more local lockdowns were announced yesterday in the North West and South Wales, Health Secretary Matt Hancock said it was in response to the ‘acceleration’ of Covid-19 across the country.

‘Working alongside our scientific and public health experts and local leaders, we are prepared to take swift and decisive action to reduce transmission of the virus and protect communities,’ he said. ‘I recognise the burden and impact these additional measures have on our daily lives but we must act collectively and quickly to bring down infections.’

Matt Hancock said the strict lockdown measures are in line with those seen in Leicester, where they have successfully quelled a surge in cases, and the West Midlands.

‘This will be difficult news for the people living in these areas, profoundly affecting their daily lives,’ he said. ‘These decisions are not taken lightly, and such measures will be kept under review and in place no longer than they are necessary.’

The tightened restrictions come after a surge in cases in the areas. The latest seven-day Covid-19 rate in Leeds was found to be 113.3 per 100,000 people, according to Government figures, while Leeds director of public health Victoria Eaton said there was an 8.4 per cent positive test rate.

The seven-day rolling average in Blackpool has risen from 48.8 per 100,000 a week ago to 69.6 per 100,000 on Friday, the Government’s coronavirus dashboard shows. The rate in Wigan has risen to 122.6 per 100,000 people, while in Stockport it is up to 77.4 per 100,000 people.

On Thursday, Cardiff Council leader Huw Thomas said the capital had seen 38.2 cases of Covid-19 per 100,000 people over the past five days. Swansea’s rate is 49.8.

Over the past seven days Cardiff’s positivity rate has hit 3.8 per cent, exceeding the Welsh Government’s ‘amber’ threshold of 2.5 per cent – part of its ‘traffic light road map’ strategy for managing the pandemic.

The leader of Leeds city council, Judith Blake, said there was ‘a lot of confusion’ and ‘a lack of clarity’ this morning as the draconian rules came into force in the city.

She told BBC Breakfast: ‘We know that the restrictions themselves won’t just work on their own, it has to come as part of a whole raft of measures in the city.

‘The important message that we know from other areas is there is a lot of confusion, a lack of clarity, particularly in areas where there are different rules in one borough and the next-door borough has another one. This has to be a wake-up call to people.

‘If things carry on the way they are, then I can’t see how the Government won’t be forced to take more measures that have more of an impact on our lives, on our ability to go out and do the things we need to do to keep the economy going.’

Leeds’ director of public health Ms Eaton told reporters last night that the spread of the virus is ‘very dynamic’ across the city and that it was ‘clear we have very widespread community transmission’.

‘We have high rates in some of our student areas which we have increased more recently. It’s clearly not just an issue for student areas,’ she said, before warning cases wererising in all age groups and that compliance with self-isolation rules was low.’

Welsh First Minister Mark Drakeford has urged people in Cardiff to start behaving as though the new restrictions are in place, even though they do not come into force until Sunday evening.

He told LBC that police enforcement was the last resort, adding: ‘If there are people who clearly deliberately flout the law you have to enforce.

‘Yes, with fines if necessary. But for us that’s the last resort, not the first resort. In Caerphilly (the first area in Wales to be locked down) we have had very, very good levels of co-operation. My experience is people are wanting to do the right thing.

The nation’s health minister, Vaughan Gething warned the spiralling infections are comparable to the end of February where ‘we ended large parts of NHS activity about two weeks later’. 

He added: ‘We have seen a sharp rise in cases in all of the areas where we are taking local restrictions and it is being driven by indoor household contact, so more people than should be in that household bubble going in and mixing.

‘That has extended out into licensed premises as well, where again people are not following the rules.’ 

The latest data for Cardiff on the Government’s dashboard shows the seven-day rolling average of cases surged to 21.9 per 100,000 on September 18, up from 11.6 a week ago. And in Swansea they have more than tripled from 6.4 per 100,000 on September 11 to 19.4 a week later. 

Blackpool has been exempt from restrictions imposed in the rest of Lancashire until today, with the seaside resort now brought in line with its neighbours.

Scott Benton, Conservative MP for Blackpool South, said the area initially avoided restrictions as its infection rate was 23 cases per 100,000 but that by Wednesday this had surged to 63 cases per 100,000, still below the average for the whole of Lancashire but a significant rise. 

Mr Benton said on Facebook: ‘The rise in cases is particularly high in areas of north Blackpool and the evidence is that this is due to transmission within the community rather than as a result of tourism (this explains why our local infection rate has remained low in comparison to other areas in the North West despite visitors coming here all summer).

‘It is vital that we take sensible steps now to reduce the rate of transmission which is why these new restrictions are being applied.

‘Nobody wants a second full lockdown and that idea behind these new rules is to slow the spread of Covid-19 so that we do not end up in a position where a full lockdown has to be considered.’

Wigan is to have restrictions reimposed after they were first eased on August 26 as case numbers surge again. Stockport is also seeing restrictions reimposed after a ban on mixing in each other’s households was lifted on September 2.