Fauci: Full brunt of Thanksgiving on Covid-19 data isn’t here yet

“The problem is, that’s going to come right up to the beginning of the Christmas, Hanukkah potential surge,” he said.

The middle of January “could be a really dark time for us,” he added.

For his part, Fauci said he plans to observe the holidays differently this year.

“For the first time in more than 30 years, I’m not spending the Christmas holidays with my daughters,” Fauci said.

States reporting records with the worse still to come

Before vaccines can be distributed widely to residents, states must contend with the surge on top of a surge experts say is coming after the holidays.

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear said the state just underwent “our highest week to date.” The state reported 10 confirmed deaths, a positivity rate of 9.75% and 2,567 new cases as of Sunday evening — the second-highest for a Sunday in Kentucky.

While the rate of growth appeared to be slowing, he said, it is still unclear whether data will show “a Thanksgiving surge” later this week.

Vaccine chief hopes for drop in elderly Covid-19 deaths

Though there are still hurdles for vaccine candidates to jump, Moncef Slaoui, chief scientific adviser of Operation Warp Speed, said he hopes to see a “quite significant” drop in coronavirus illness and death among the elderly population quickly.

By the middle of March, he said, the United States should have vaccinated its highly susceptible population, which is about 100 million people, while the rest of the country “will not all have the vaccine in our arms before May or June.”

Moderna and Pfizer have submitted vaccine candidates to the US Food and Drug Administration for emergency use authorization. The FDA will meet Thursday to decide on authorization for Pfizer’s vaccine.

“I frankly expect them to approve it very quickly,” Slaoui, adding the prediction was based on the data he saw.

“The vaccine’s highly effective. The vaccine is safe. Its safety profile is comparable to that of many other vaccines that have been in use for years and decades. The manufacturing of these vaccines is very well done. The quality of manufacturing is excellent,” Slaoui said.

Manufacturing the vaccine has been “somewhat more complicated and more difficult than we planned,” Slaoui said, adding that scientists are six to eight weeks behind “an ideal scenario where we would have had 100 million doses by the end of this year.”

The nature of fast-tracking a vaccine means more issues may arise, he said.

The vaccine, which will come in two doses — a challenge to produce and distribute in the necessary quantities — will likely reach healthy, non-elderly Americans with no known underlying health conditions in late March to early April, said Fauci.

Fauci cautioned that the vaccine’s impact on mortality rates will not be immediate, largely because the vaccine requires two shots and 7-10 days for immunity to grow.

“Likely you’re not going to see a measurable diminution for at least several weeks, if not longer,” Fauci said. “But it will come, I’ll guarantee you.”