Congressional leaders are finally nearing a deal on a $900 billion Covid relief package. Here’s how it could play out.
The price tag for a stimulus deal could be close to $900 billion, a source familiar tells CNN, though more details could be out later Wednesday.
The deal is expected to include a new round of stimulus checks, but no money for state and local aid, a priority Democrats had pushed for, and no lawsuit protections, which Republicans wanted, according to a source briefed on the talks. The source cautioned that nothing is final until it is unveiled, but that’s where this is headed at the moment. A separate person familiar with the talks told CNN negotiators are closing in on a deal that will include enhanced unemployment insurance benefits.
Even as talks are moving in a positive direction towards a deal, congressional leaders are still trading offers and going back-and-forth this morning as they try to finalize a proposal and jam it through Congress in days, several sources told CNN.
That means it’s still highly uncertain when Congress will vote — and whether they will be able to tie the roughly $900 billion relief plan to a massive $1.4 trillion spending bill that Congress is trying to pass by the time the government runs out of money Friday night. Whether Congress will have to pass another stop-gap measure to keep agencies afloat remains to be seen.
Congressional leaders weigh in
Staff for the top four leaders — House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer and House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy — are expected to talk Wednesday by phone.
McConnell said in a floor speech Wednesday morning that Hill leaders have “made major headway toward hammering out a targeted pandemic relief package that would be able to pass both chambers with bipartisan majorities,” and said, “we agreed we will not leave town until we’ve made law.”
McConnell did not announce any specifics on what will be in the deal but did offer a preview of what’s likely to be included, saying, “We need vaccine distribution money, we need to re-up the Paycheck Protection Program to save jobs, we need to continue to provide for laid off Americans.”
On a conference call with House Democrats this morning, Pelosi signaled that the deal isn’t final yet but offered the general outlines of the proposal. There wasn’t a lot of pushback on the call, and sources described the atmosphere on the call as positive.
Senate Majority Whip John Thune told reporters that he thinks $600-$700 is under discussion for stimulus checks and “double that for family and kids.”
Thune, a Republican from South Dakota, also added he thinks there will be $300 for unemployment benefits per week.
“I feel more optimistic I think that there’s been a lot of progress made,” he said, adding, “I’m hopeful that we’ll be able to hit the deadline.”
Rather than giving direct aid to states, Hill leaders are looking at a $90 billion fund that would be administered by FEMA for aid to states and cities, senators say.
Thune told CNN that if it’s “simply a way of disguising money for state and local governments, it will have a lot of opposition.” He said it depends on how its structured.
“Does it affect our vote count? Probably,” he said.
Thune also said “some of our folks won’t like” $300 in weekly jobless benefits, but others will — and noted that “personal checks create concerns among some GOP members.”
Thune also said they appear to have upped the small business loans to $330 billion in this package, which Republicans support.
It won’t be an easy task. But top Democrats and Republicans expressed confidence Tuesday evening after the big four leaders met for the first time in months, emerging to say that a deal is finally in sight. But they refused to share any details.
How the legislative process could play out
Once it is finalized, leadership from both parties will have to brief the rank-and-file to sell them on the agreement and then move as quickly as possible to hold a vote in both chambers.
Negotiators are up against the clock ahead of a Friday at midnight deadline when government funding expires, and barring any major last-minute snags, lawmakers could be on track for a vote in the House on Thursday followed by a vote in the Senate on Friday. They would need unanimous consent from all 100 senators to schedule a vote, meaning if any senator objects, there could be at least a temporary government shutdown over the weekend.
Once a vote takes place in the House, there will be little time left on the calendar before a potential shutdown is triggered.
With such a narrow margin for error, get ready for rank-and-file members to attempt to exert influence on the process in an effort to win concessions.
If a quick Senate vote is blocked, there could be a brief government shutdown over the weekend. And if lawmakers fail to imminently finalize a massive government spending bill for a new fiscal year, there is also a chance they could be forced to revert to a short-term funding patch instead, though lawmakers in both parties have made clear they don’t want that to happen.
It’s not yet clear how much buy-in a deal will get from the rank-and-file on both sides of the aisle, but there will likely be GOP concerns about the price tag.
Sen. Ron Johnson, a Republican of Wisconsin, said “probably” when asked if it was too much money.
GOP Sen. Rand Paul, however, signaled Wednesday that he won’t stand in the way of a quick Senate vote.
“We probably won’t object to the time limitations on it,” the Kentucky Republican told reporters.
While the emerging proposal is expected to include a new round of stimulus checks, the expected amount is not as much as what’s being pushed by House progressives, Sen. Bernie Sanders and at least one Republican, Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri.
Sanders, who has been demanding $1,200 in checks, praised the emerging proposal for including stimulus checks even though it’s expected to be in the range of $600-$700 range for individuals. He said he would keep demanding more, but he wouldn’t say if he would object or slow down the deal to prevent it from passing by Friday.
“Two weeks ago … there was virtually no discussion about direct payments,” Sanders said. “So I’m proud of the progress that we’ve made … I’m gonna continue to fight for more. Because people are in trouble right now and they need help, but it’s a good start.”
This story has been updated with additional developments Wednesday.
CNN’s Daniella Diaz and Ted Barrett contributed to this report.
