Mutated Kent coronavirus ‘could cause MORE deaths in England than the first wave’

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The mutated Kent coronavirus is 56 per cent more infectious than its predecessor, SAGE advisers have warned, and will likely cause more deaths from the virus in England next year than the almost 70,000 recorded in 2020 even if lockdowns are imposed nationwide. 

They said the variant – named B.1.1.7 – would lead to more fatalities simply because it would trigger a greater number of cases, meaning more Britons who are most at risk would catch the virus. 

There is still no evidence to suggest the variant is any more deadly than previous versions of Covid-19, but even if it kills the same percentage of people who catch it, more cases will inevitably lead to more deaths.

As many as 118,000 people could succumb to the virus next year – 70 per cent more than in 2020 – if only the three-tiered set of restrictions is left in place until July, the experts from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine warned. 

Calling for yet more draconian curbs on people’s lives across England, they said only a full national lockdown with primary and secondary schools shut in January – unlike in England’s second shutdown – was the only measure offering hope of driving deaths below the number registered in 2020.

But this would only be achieved with a ‘greatly accelerated’ vaccination programme with at least two million Britons getting their first dose every week from the start of 2021, because immunising people may be the only way to stop new variant.

They said a national lockdown with 200,000 vaccinations a week would drive deaths to 83,200 by July next year, 18 per cent more than last year. But with a ramping up of vaccinations they predicted deaths would fall to 35,700, half those registered in 2020.

The Pfizer vaccine has already been approved, but only given to some 500,000 Britons in the first two weeks of the programme, prompting warnings that the roll-out needs to be sped up.

The Oxford/AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine, of which the UK has ordered 100million doses, is expected to get the green light before the end of this year – promising to jump-start vaccinations as millions more jabs are dished out to hospitals and GP surgeries.

Professor John Edmunds, Professor Sebastian Funk and Professor Rosalind Eggo, who are all members of the SAGE advisory group SPI-M-O, contributed to the study published online yesterday.

‘The increase in transmissibility is likely to lead to a large increase in incidence, with Covid-19 hospitalisations and deaths projected to reach higher levels in 2021 than were observed in 2020,’ they wrote, ‘even if regional tiered restrictions implemented before December 19 are maintained.

‘Our estimates suggest that control measures of a similar stringency to the national lockdown in England in November 2020 are unlikely to reduce the effective reproduction rate [R number] to less than one, unless primary schools, secondary schools and universities are closed.’

They continued: ‘We project that large resurgences of the virus are likely to occur following easing of control measures.

‘It may be necessary to greatly accelerate vaccine roll out to have an appreciable impact in suppressing the resulting disease burden.’

They warned in the paper that the second wave may not peak until spring in London, the South East and East of England, but would not reach its highest level until the summer in the rest of England. 

To estimate how much more infectious this variant of the virus is, the researchers considered how quickly cases of it were expanding in comparison to strains of other viruses in the same areas.

By looking at all Covid infections in one area, the scientists could rule out most other impacts on transmission, such as different lockdown rules and social mixing behaviours. They found that the B.1.1.7 appeared to be spreading around 56 per cent faster than any other type of the coronavirus, suggesting it is more infectious. 

And to consider the impact this might have next year, the experts modelled four scenarios from mid-December to the end of June in their study, to estimate how many deaths would be triggered by differing levels of restrictions.

As many as 118,000 people could die – almost double the 70,000 in all of 2020 – by June if only the Three-Tier system is left in place, they warned.

This fell to 107,000 if Tier Four was imposed across England until January 31, but with schools and universities re-opening on January 4 like in England’s second lockdown.

But if educational institutions were shuttered until the end of January, they said the resultant down-turn on the spread of the virus meant that 102,000 deaths would be recorded in the first half of next year. 

This was the lowest number of deaths predicted, but still above the levels recorded in 2020.

The final scenario – of a total lockdown with school closures – was also considered alongside having 200,000 people vaccinated every week and two million every week.

They assumed that someone was immune as soon as they received their first dose, arguing that this could be made because they were considering vaccinations from January 4 – which left out the more than 500,000 shots dished out in December.

In the former scenario, their modelling suggested up to 83,300 deaths would occur. But in the latter this fell to 35,700 – the only figure that was below the number of deaths recorded in 2020. 

Their study, which is yet to be published by a journal, has also not been peer-reviewed. This means their predictions are yet to be scrutinised by other scientists.

Professor Edmunds was part of the team that predicted in October that deaths from coronavirus could surge to 2,000 a day and peak during December without further rapid action to curb the spread of the virus. 

There are mounting fears that a second national lockdown in England in January is inevitable – when children are due to return to school.

The new variant prevalent in the South East has doubled the number of cases in a week, with another 36,804 new infections recorded yesterday, and 691 deaths.

This week marks the third week in a row that the figure has risen since the national lockdown brought it down to 1.0 in November.

SAGE, which is headed up by chief scientist Sir Patrick Vallance, said: ‘All NHS England regions have R estimates that are above or span 1, suggesting the epidemic is growing in much of the country, with London, the South East, and the East of England clearly above 1.’

The estimates, which take into account data up to December 18 so don’t include any effects of the Tier Four rules in London and the South East, come as a new, more infectious strain of the coronavirus is fast becoming dominant in the South.

It came after a senior minister sowed confusion yesterday morning over whether Christmas Day bubbles could be axed at the last minute, potentially throwing the Christmas plans of millions into further chaos.

Communities Secretary Robert Jenrick initially refused to rule out changes being made to the plan to allow extended households to meed on December 25 amid a surge in cases powered by a mutant Covid strain.

Mr Jenrick told Sky News: ‘If we need to change that (Christmas plans) in light of the new variant, then we won’t hesitate to do so.’ 

But later on BBC Breakfast he said it was ‘extremely unlikely’ that Christmas Day plans would be upended with less than 48 hours to go until presents are unwrapped.

He told BBC Breakfast there were currently  ‘no plans’ to make changes for the 25th – despite earlier confirming ministers and experts are due to meet this morning to discuss what changes to England’s tiers are required in the face of the growth in cases.

It was only in his third interview of the morning, to Radio 4’s Today Programme, that he vowed: ‘We are not going to change people’s plans 24-48 hours before Christmas.’  

It came after chaos spread across Kent, with fights breaking out between lorry drivers and police at the Port of Dover and Manston Airport.

Dozens of truckers trying to reach their homes on the Continent tried to force their way past officers guarding the port today as they bid to get home for Christmas.

Hundreds left their cabs and walked along the A20 to the port entrance in Kent at 8am jeering and whistling, with some shouting in English: ‘Open the border’, ‘We just want to go home’ and ‘F*** you, Boris!’

At one point several of them surged forwards towards a line of Kent Police officers who were forced to push them back as days of simmering anger at the chaotic situation amid the Covid-19 pandemic bubbled to the surface.  Some drivers showed police apparently negative results, but an officer said a lot of them were ‘fake test sheets’.

Tensions also boiled over 18 miles away at Manston Airport, where truckers whose lorries are being held staged a protest, broke down fences and blocked roads. The Army and NHS staff are working together to administer Covid-19 tests at the airport, which are handed to drivers in their cabs to be self-administered under supervision. 

Mr Jenrick told Sky News yesterday ‘it may be necessary to take further action’ to limit the spread of the new coronavirus variant amid speculation of wider lockdown measures. 

‘We don’t have a timetable for that. The Government’s Covid operations committee is meeting later today to review further evidence,’ he said.

‘We keep this under review, we are constantly hearing from our scientific advisers about what we should do.’

The new variant is ‘very concerning’ and was ‘prevalent probably in most regions of the country’.

Home Secretary Priti Patel added to fears on Tuesday, confirming more areas will be plunged into the toughest tier of Covid outbreaks aren’t kept under control and refusing to rule out a national shutdown. 

She told Sky News: ‘If the virus continues to spread then we will take stronger measures because at the end of the day our objective is to save lives and to keep people safe.’

Department of Health data shows daily Covid infections have doubled week-on-week because of rapidly growing clusters across London, the South East and East. No10’s top scientific advisers blame the spread on a mutated form thought to be up to 70 per cent more infectious.

Deaths have also started to soar in line with the spike in cases in the three badly-hit regions, which were forced into draconian Tier Four restrictions in a last-ditch attempt to strangle their outbreaks. Officials recorded another 691 victims on Tuesday, the highest daily toll since November 25 and up on the 506 recorded last Tuesday.

But fatalities – which lag behind infections because it can take infected patients several weeks to succumb to the illness – are expected to continue to spike in the coming weeks as a result of the rising number of cases, before tailing off as a result of the Tier Four curbs.  

Health chiefs in Cumbria have said the new variant is in the county and could be behind some sharp increases in new cases.

Director of public health for Cumbria, Colin Cox, said in the district of Eden rates had risen to 345 cases per 100,000 people, the highest seen in Cumbria to date, and Lancashire’s director of public health Sakthi Karunanithi said there was a ‘high likelihood’ the new variant was in the county.

Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham said there was no evidence the strain has reached the area but what public health directors ‘want to emphasise is it is safe for people to assume that it is already here or it is about to arrive’.

On Monday, Brighton’s council leader Phelim Mac Cafferty said the number of cases in the city had ‘more than doubled in one week’.

It comes as one of the Government’s scientific advisers warned Britain faces a ‘human disaster’ unless ministers impose ‘stricter’ rules across the country, fuelling fears of a full New Year lockdown in England.

Meanwhile, Cambridge University experts behind a string of dire coronavirus projections warned that England was on track for 900 deaths a day before the Tier Four restrictions – which cancelled Christmas for 16million people – were imposed. 

The academics, who were behind the same gloomy warning of 4,000 daily deaths that spooked Number 10 into England’s November shutdown, estimated the nation was hurtling towards fatality tolls seen during the darkest days of the first wave in April.

But the team admit the stark claim was made without accounting for Downing St’s decision to plunge a quarter of the country into the toughest virus-controlling curbs, meaning their dramatic estimate – which gets revised every fortnight – is likely to be drastically toned down when the effects of the restrictions kick in.

England was last night put on notice for a New Year lockdown after the Government’s chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance warned it was likely whack-a-mole measures would ‘need to be increased’ outside of London and the South East because the mutated variant of Covid was already ‘everywhere’.   

SAGE experts have repeated their calls for tougher action, with behavioural psychologist Professor Robert West warning the Government’s current curbs were unlikely to contain the spread of Covid. 

He argued the UK needed to bolster social distancing rules and build a test, travel, isolate and support programme similar to ones used in East Asia.

And The Mail understands that Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty has warned the Prime Minister that the number of patients in hospital with coronavirus is on course to match the April peak by New Year’s Eve – and will continue increasing in January.

Downing Street yesterday tried to play down suggestions that a third national lockdown was imminent, but Sir Patrick said the new strain, which is thought to spread up to 70 per cent more easily, was already present ‘around the country’. 

It comes as official data shows the mutated coronavirus strain has rapidly spread through swathes of England in a fortnight and now accounts for the majority of infections in some regions.

The Office for National Statistics estimates 62 per cent of cases in London were because of the new variant in the week up to December 9, the most recent snapshot provided by the Government agency. That was almost double the amount of infections in the capital attributed to the mutation in the seven-day period to November 25 (35 per cent).

It’s believed the new variant — thought to be up to 70 per cent more infectious than regular Covid — emerged in a patient in Kent and made its way into London and the commuter belt. 

In the East of England, the strain is estimated to have made up 59 per cent of infections in the week to December 9, soaring from 31 per cent the two weeks prior. 

The ONS said 43 per cent of cases in the South East in the most recent week were cause by the variant, up slightly from the 39 per cent on November 25. 

Smaller rises were seen elsewhere in the country. In the Midlands the figure jumped from 19 to 27 per cent, in the South West the figure rose from 27 to 28 per cent and for the North West it went from 12 to 17 per cent.

The North East and Yorkshire actually saw declines in cases of the super-charged strain, with the percentage of cases falling from 18 to 15 per cent and seven to five per cent, respectively. 

The data comes from the ONS’ Infection Survey, which has been monitoring Britain’s crisis by sending tens of thousands of swabs to random households across the country, regardless of whether people have symptoms.

As the new strain becomes more widespread and triggers a third wave of infections, there are fears that hospitals could become overwhelmed and deaths could approach the devastating levels seen in spring.

But scientists have assured the public there is no evidence to suggest it is more lethal than regular Covid and have even suggested it could be less dangerous.

From an evolutionary standpoint, viruses can transmit more easily if they cause mild or asymptomatic illness because it means carriers continue to go about their daily lives, thereby spreading the contagion more extensively.

Separate data today revealed Covid deaths fell by 3 per cent in England and Wales in the first week after England’s national lockdown. 

Office for National Statistics (ONS) data shows there were 2,756 coronavirus fatalities in the seven-day spell that ended December 11, with Covid being the underlying cause of death for nearly 85 per cent of victims. 

It was the second week in a row that coronavirus deaths dropped, proving that the draconian restrictions did cut the spread of the virus and save hundreds of lives. 

For comparison, 2,835 fatalities were registered over the last week of lockdown, down from a five-month high of 3,040 the week before.

But the figures don’t prove that England’s return to a whack-a-mole tiered strategy has worked to keep the illness under control long-term because it can take infected patients several weeks to succumb to the disease. 

It means the effects of the revamped three-tier system won’t be evident in ONS figures for another fortnight. 

But swathes of data showed the original tiered restrictions – which Number 10’s top scientists feared wouldn’t be enough to keep the winter crisis at bay – tackled the virus, slashing the number of new infections and thwarting pressure on hospitals in the North West. 

It comes as France eased its travel ban on freight in Britain tonight – permitting drivers can provide a negative Covid test.

Lorry drivers stuck in Kent, unable to move in a coronavirus border row, finally have the green light to travel to France from this morning. 

The two nations had previously been at loggerheads over which type of test would be required to allow trucks back on the road, with the travel ban imposed in response to fears about the spread of the more infectious coronavirus strain, which is spreading rapidly in the UK. 

In a statement yesterday, the French foreign affairs ministry said that from midnight there would be a ‘limited resumption of the movement of people from the United Kingdom to France subject to negative health tests sensitive to the variant’. 

It added that a negative test result, taken less than 72 hours before the journey, is required and this can be either a PCR or lateral flow test sensitive to the new variant.

Those who can make journeys include French and EU residents, British or third-party nationals who normally live in France or the EU, as well as some other groups.  

The deal marks a significant breakthrough after a long period of deadlock, with Brussels having called for an end to the border blockade which has seen 4,000 more lorries park up in Kent.

It came after the EU urged European countries to drop all travel bans imposed on the UK, including on the movement of freight.

The European Commission published guidance at lunchtime on Tuesday, recommending all non-essential travel to and from the UK should be ‘discouraged’ because of the risk posed by a new mutant strain of coronavirus which spreads quicker than its predecessor.

But it added: ‘Flight and train bans should be discontinued given the need to ensure essential travel and avoid supply chain disruptions.’ 

Meanwhile, parents are ‘dreading’ the prospect hinted at by Home Secretary Priti Patel of schools being shut throughout January as Britain grapples with the new strain of coronavirus.

Ordinarily after the Christmas break, children would return to schools in the first week of January but this date was recently pushed back to January 11.

But when asked about when classrooms would re-open in the New Year, Ms Patel only said that pupils would ‘eventually’ return as she pinned hopes on the mass testing regime being rolled out in schools.

This is despite scientists’ concerns that the lateral flow tests being used as part of Number 10’s Operation Moonshot – which officials hope will help unlock swathes of Britain from draconian restrictions – are too inaccurate and could lead to children and staff spreading the virus despite being told they are clear.

Trials of on-the-spot lateral flow tests in Liverpool found they miss half of infected people and a study on University of Birmingham students predicted the self-administered swabs detected just three per cent of cases.

It comes after Government source said on Monday that some schools could end up staying closed until February amid fears that children are more likely to catch the new mutant strain of coronavirus.

Furious parents took to Mumsnet on Monday and Tuesday to air their concerns, with several saying they were ‘dreading’ the prospect of a delay to schools opening.

Another described how the first lockdown in March, which saw schools closed nationwide, ‘nearly broke me’. They added that the ‘guilt’ they felt at seeing their child ‘in front of a screen for 10 hours a day’ was ‘unendurable’.

Britain’s largest teaching union had earlier demanded classes be moved online for two weeks after Christmas to give school staff the chance to get vaccinated against Covid-19.

But former headteacher Chris McGovern, of the Campaign for Real Education, said the school closures were ‘disastrous and catastrophic’ for the nation’s poorest children and that teaching unions were ‘playing a political game’.