Opinion: The GOP’s post-Trump dilemma
First are the vocal opponents who have expressed outraged opposition to Trump, specifically Sens. Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Mitt Romney, Ben Sasse and Pat Toomey. On the other end of the spectrum are Trump’s true believers, like Sen. Lindsey Graham, who arguably qualifies for Stockholm syndrome in his slavish devotion to Trump (Graham’s vote to certify the election result on January 6 — after the riot at the Capitol — is notably too little, too late), along with wanna-be Trump heir-apparents like Sens. Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley, who earned their place in the political Hall of Shame. In their zeal to curry favor with Trump supporters and presumably run for President themselves, they offered credibility to the Stop the Steal Movement, which led to the riot.
Then you have conservative constitutionalists, such as Sens. Tom Cotton and Rand Paul, who sincerely believe the impeachment trial is illegitimate but are silent on the grounds for the impeachment itself; political calculators, like Sens. Marco Rubio and John Thune, who need to avoid getting primaried back home by Trump-inspired challengers in 2022; and, fence-sitters, such as Sen. Roy Blunt, who denounced the January 6 rioters, but failed to admit Trump’s culpability in inciting them. This group of approximately 30 senators are kicking the Trump-can down the road pending further developments.
Some senators, including Sens. Mitch McConnell and Rob Portman, could vote against Trump during the impeachment trial, though it is unlikely that 17 Republicans will join 50 Democrats to get the majority needed to convict him. Still, the situation is fluid.
Trump’s legal team has quit because of his brainless insistence that the defense be focused on election fraud rather than contesting the charge that he incited the riot. If Trump persists in that approach, the baseless claim could offend Republican senators, motivating them to vote for conviction. All of this begs the question: What’s next for Trump and the GOP?
Depending on the impeachment outcome, it seems there are two possibilities. One is a Trump-lite scenario in which the former president plays a slowly diminishing role in party affairs — this option would be certain if Trump is convicted. However, if he’s not found guilty, the alternative is a Trump-heavy presence, where the former president seeks continuing control over the GOP and runs for president again.
First, consider the Trump-lite scenario, which addresses the obstacles Trump faces moving forward. I believe this is the most likely fate for him, even if he’s not convicted. This scenario foresees an active, yet not dominant, role for Trump, and results in him not seeking the presidency in 2024.
Trump’s approval ratings, including among Republicans, can be expected to dip due to impeachment trial evidence like police reports of arrested rioters who claimed they were following Trump’s orders, and horrifying new video of the violence. Even more damning will be the account of acting Defense Secretary Christopher Miller, who told Vanity Fair that Trump advised him the night before the riots to bring in 10,000 National Guardsmen to control the crowd. This indicates that Trump knew the demonstration could spin out of control even before he instructed his base on January 6 to “fight much harder” and “show strength.”
Without his social media megaphone, Trump has lost the most effective outlet for his “big lie” tactics, such as convincing his supporters that the election was stolen from him without providing any proof that fraud had occurred. The Washington Post catalogued 30,573 false and misleading claims Trump made while President, and one study found that misinformation about election fraud decreased by over 70% in the week after Trump lost his social media, underscoring the impact of his public muzzling.
Trump also faces serious legal issues. New York Attorney General Letitia James has an active tax fraud investigation into the Trump Organization. Meanwhile, Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance opened an investigation into alleged hush-money payments to two women, which has expanded into an active criminal investigation into Trump’s business operations. Also, since Trump left office without giving himself a pardon, he’s open to any number of federal charges. Indeed, the House Ways and Means Chairman Democrat Richard Neal has renewed his call for the Biden Treasury Department to submit Trump’s tax returns to Congress. These legal woes will bedevil Trump for years, and news of his possible — or actual –criminality will further erode his public standing.
Trump has serious financial problems. Numerous banks, including Deutsche Bank, Signature Bank, Bank United Inc. and Professional Bank, will no longer work with the former President, who has between $421 million and $1.1 billion in loans coming due in the next four years, according to New York Times, Financial Times and Forbes reports. While Trump has a long history of evading serious financial difficulties, multiple banks shunning him will impair efforts to fight legal woes and salvage his business.
Consequently, social media de-platforming, possible criminal proceedings, and serious financial problems will likely cripple Trump’s comeback attempt.
However, given his astonishing ability to overcome seemingly-insurmountable obstacles, we must consider a second scenario: a Trump-heavy influence on the Republican Party. This foresees the former president re-establishing a bully pulpit, raising money, and staying politically relevant. It culminates with him being the Republican presidential nominee in 2024.
Trump can reconnect with his base and monetize supporters for some badly-needed cash. Barron’s estimates that a Trump TV network (assuming it can get carriage) could charge an audience of 5 million customers $5 a month to yield $300 million annually. Additionally, if he can regain access to his email list, which was suspended by digital provider Salesforce after the riot, Trump could offer a paid digital newsletter for a monthly fee. His campaign has roughly 20 million supporters’ email addresses, so this could be a real money-maker.
A Trump-hosted television show on Fox News, NewsMax, or AmericaOne is also a possibility, which again would serve his dual strategy of making money while reconnecting with his supporters. Also, Trump could be invited to host the ailing Rush Limbaugh’s radio show with its reported 15.5 million listeners, once failing health causes Limbaugh to relinquish his microphone.
Political endorsements and rallies could also keep Trump in the public domain. His endorsements would be widely sought after, particularly by GOP candidates who want to help Trump take revenge on the House and Senate Republicans who publicly favored impeachment. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy’s recent meeting with Trump to discuss his involvement in the 2022 midterm elections signals that GOP leaders still believe in the potency of Trump’s appeal with their base voters.
At its root, Trump leads a cult of personality, enabling him to scare Republican leaders and possibly deter some Senate impeachment votes. His big-lie tactics have brainwashed Americans across the nation into believing whatever he says. This is perhaps the most powerful — and utterly morally reprehensible — tool that Trump can use to control the GOP going forward.
Post-impeachment, there is a fork in the road for the GOP. What lies ahead for Republicans? Trump-lite, with the former president fading over the next few years? Or Trump-heavy, with the former President making a comeback while navigating shark-infested waters of his own making? Only time will tell.
