Boris Johnson is set to push Freedom Day to July 19 as new poll shows majority of Britons back delay
Summer freedom on hold for FOUR WEEKS: Boris Johnson is set to push Freedom Day to July 19 as new poll shows majority of Britons back delay with Indian variant driving hospital admissions up 40% week-on-week
- 53% of UK voters want some lockdown rules to stay across the UK past June 21 as cases of Indian variant rise
- Meanwhile, 25 per cent want all freedom-limiting legislation to remain meaning lockdown would continue
- 34% of voters want life to go back to normal on the day Boris Johnson promised it would, YouGov poll found
- PM preparing to postpone Covid roadmap by 4 weeks in a move likely to enrage MPs and business owners
Boris Johnson is set to push Freedom Day to July 19 as a new poll shows the majority of Britons want ministers to delay the lifting of all lockdown rules amid a spike in Indian variant cases.
A total of 53 per cent of UK voters want some lockdown rules to stay across the UK past June 21 – while 25 per cent want all freedom-limiting legislation to remain.
Just 34 per cent of people said they would like life to go back to normal on the day Boris Johnson promised it would, a poll of 1,392 people conducted by YouGov for The Times found.
It comes as Michael Tildesley, a University of Warwick epidemiologist, told BBC Radio 4 scientists needed to find the link between cases and hospital admissions before any decisions could be made.
A separate question in the YouGov poll saw 22 per cent of people dub the rule of six – which currently limits indoor gatherings to just six people – their least favourite lockdown rule and said it should be lifted first.
The Prime Minister is preparing to postpone the final stage of his Covid roadmap by four weeks in a move likely to enrage MPs, business leaders and hospitality chiefs.
But in a bid to appease Tory MPs and ministers – including Chancellor Rishi Sunak – who are keen to unleash the economy, the Prime Minister is expected to promise a review after a fortnight. This could allow curbs to be ditched earlier if hospital admissions remain low.
The setback has been prompted by a sharp rise in cases of the Indian variant, and the British Medical Association calling for a delay to allow more people to receive their second jabs.
Boris Johnson (pictured today) is set to push Freedom Day to July 19 as a new poll shows the majority of Britons want ministers to delay the lifting of all lockdown rules amid a spike in Indian variant cases
Cabinet sources last night conceded that Freedom Day on June 21 was ‘not looking great’, with a four-week extension to Covid restrictions now ‘most likely’.
Under the PM’s Covid roadmap, June 21 was supposed to be the day when all social distancing curbs were lifted and the work-from-home advice abandoned. Mr Johnson will make a final decision tomorrow night, before making an announcement to the nation on Monday evening.
Mr Tildesley, a University of Warwick epidemiologist, said that although cases are going up, because of the success of the vaccine rollout it is not known what effect removing restrictions could have on hospital admissions.
He said: ‘We don’t want to be slipping into another lockdown. To avoid this we have to be cautious and make sure we get enough data from the government as possible informing what we might expect in a future wave as we start to unlock further.
‘I understand people really want to open up as soon as possible but of course what we don’t want is a big wave of hospital admissions by doing so so it’s a really difficult decision the Government are going to have to make over the next few days.’
Officials told the Mail last night that the debate in Downing Street was now concentrated on whether to ‘pause’ the reopening by two weeks or four.
In a significant intervention, the British Medical Association called on Mr Johnson to hold off until more people had received both doses of the vaccine.
Its council chairman Dr Chaand Nagpaul said the figures showed more time was needed to get the vaccine to more people.
‘With only 54.2 per cent of the adult population currently fully vaccinated and many younger people not yet eligible, there is a huge risk that prematurely relaxing all restrictions will undo the excellent work of the vaccine programme and lead to a surge of infections,’ he said.
Weddings could still get an exemption, with the 30-person cap on guests lifted on June 21 to allow the big weddings that many couples have booked to go ahead.
However, the delay to lifting the remainder of the curbs – which ban nightclubs opening, limit crowds at theatres and sporting events, restrict capacity indoors at pubs and restaurants and prevent people meeting in large groups – is likely to enrage many MPs, hospitality leaders and business chiefs.
The Mail revealed this week that Mr Sunak had told Mr Johnson he could live with a delay of ‘a week or two’ but would resist any further slippage as this could involve extending the furlough scheme.
On Friday, nightclubs and bars threatened to sue the Government if the planned lifting of restrictions was postponed.
Speaking at the start of the G7 summit in Cornwall, Boris Johnson told his fellow world leaders that mistakes had ‘doubtless’ been made over the last 18 months during the course of the ‘wretched’ coronavirus pandemic
England’s coronavirus R rate is higher than at any time since October at a minimum of 1.2 and possible high of 1.4, SAGE estimated yesterday
Public Health England data show how it took just a matter of weeks for the Indian ‘Delta’ variant to smash past the Kent strain and take over as dominant in England, with it surging to make up 96 per cent of cases in just nine weeks
The Office for National Statistics’ weekly infection survey suggested England’s outbreak grew by only 13 per cent last week to 96,800 total cases – compared to a near-doubling 75 per cent surge the week before
Vaccines minister Nadhim Zahawi said the UK must be ‘really careful’ so not to ‘squander’ gains made with vaccines. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is expected to delay the end of lockdown planned for June 21
The R rate is highest in the North West, where it could be as high as 1.5. The region is the Indian variant hotspot and cases there have exploded in the past fortnight. A quarter of all the 7,400 cases announced in the UK yesterday were in the North West
Andrew Lloyd Webber has already warned that he could take ministers to court if they do not allow theatres to operate at full capacity as planned.
And yesterday furious Tory MPs warned they will use every mechanism at their disposal to resist the delay of Freedom Day.
Julian Sturdy, the Conservative MP for York Outer, said: ‘Despite what lockdown supporters claim, it is simply not just a few extra weeks. People’s livelihoods, mental health and our long-term freedoms are at permanent risk.’
The move towards delaying June 21 came after the number of cases of the Indian variant – also known as the Delta variant – increased by 240 per cent in a week.
Public Health England said the infections had risen from 12,431 to 42,323 in the latest seven-day period, an increase of 29,892 cases. The majority of cases appeared to be among the unvaccinated. The R-rate of reproduction also increased yesterday to between 1.2 and 1.4.
In a further sign that a delay is likely, vaccines minister Nadhim Zahawi yesterday stressed the importance of being ‘really careful’ in lifting coronavirus restrictions and urged against ‘squander(ing) those hard-fought gains’ made by the vaccination programme.
At the G7 summit in Cornwall yesterday, Mr Johnson told fellow world leaders that it was important not to ‘repeat some of the errors that we doubtless made in the course of the last 18 months’. The PM has been criticised for not locking down sooner last year.
Kate Nicholls, the boss of UK Hospitality, said: ‘Any delay in the roadmap would have a devastating effect on an already fragile hospitality sector.
‘A one-month delay would cost the sector £3billion in sales and push many businesses even closer to the cliff edge of failure, meaning more job losses.’
Public Health England graphs show how the Indian ‘Delta’ variant (pink) rapidly overtook all other strains of the virus to become dominant in April and May
The North West (dark blue) has been by far the hardest hit region by the new variant while London (yellow) has experienced the second highest number of cases
Most Delta cases have been in young adults and teenagers, who are unvaccinated, while there have been significantly fewer positive tests in older people, particularly over-50s, most of whom have had two doses of a jab. The true test of the vaccine will be whether the age distribution stays this way as the outbreak gets larger
This heat map shows the hotspots for positive test samples that scientists believe are the Delta variant, with the most cases concentrated in the North West around Manchester and Liverpool
The vast majority of cases and hospital admissions triggered by the Delta variant have been in people who were unvaccinated, PHE’s data show. The figures show that only one in 10 people admitted to hospital after getting infected with the variant had been given two doses of a vaccine – just 42 out of 383 – while the rest of them had either had one jab or none at all. Twelve out of 42 people to have died of the strain had been vaccinated and just 1,785 out of 33,206 infections were in double-jabbed people
No10’s top scientific advisers have estimated England’s coronavirus R rate is higher than at any time since last October and could now be 1.4.
Vaccines Minister Nadhim Zahawi had earlier given his own downbeat assessment of the situation as he said the country must not ‘squander those hard fought gains that we have made through the vaccination programme’.
Speaking at the start of the G7 summit, Mr Johnson told his fellow world leaders: ‘We have all been going through the most wretched pandemic our countries have faced for our lifetimes, maybe longer, much longer.
‘And I actually think this is a meeting that genuinely needs to happen because we need to make sure that we learn the lessons from the pandemic, we need to make sure that we don’t repeat some of the errors that we doubtless made in the course of the last 18 months or so and we need to make sure that we now allow our economies to recover.
‘I think that they have the potential to bounce back very strongly and there is all sorts of reasons for being optimistic.
‘But it is vital that we don’t repeat the mistake of the last great crisis, the last great economic recession in 2008, when the recovery was not uniform across all parts of society and I think what has gone wrong with this pandemic, or what risks being a lasting scar, is that I think the inequalities may be entrenched.
‘We need to make sure that as we recover we level up across our societies and we build back better.’
Mr Johnson faced fierce criticism over his decision in the autumn to delay the second national lockdown and Number 10 will be aware that whatever the PM decides to do regarding June 21 he is likely to face a barrage of attacks.
Yesterday morning Mr Zahawi said on Times Radio: ‘There has been some really hard won battles against this virus and we don’t want to squander those hard fought gains that we have made through the vaccination programme. The virus hasn’t gone away, the virus will continue to mutate, to escape, to try and survive, and I think it’s really important that we are really careful.’
Government critics were taken aback by ‘terrible’ data showing how the Delta variant is taking over so quickly and threatening a third wave of hospital admissions.
The PHE figures show that the number of positive tests linked back to the strain more than tripled from 12,431 to 42,323 in just a week.
Part of this increase was down to an improved testing system that speeds up the process of working out which variant someone is infected with, PHE said, but cases are rising in the real world, too.
The variant was only discovered in April but already accounts for 96 per cent of all positives, which is likely down to the fact that it is an estimated 64 per cent more transmissible than the Kent strain was. Experts say it appears better equipped to latch onto cells in people’s airways meaning less exposure is needed to trigger an infection.
Nick Thomas-Symonds, Labour’s Shadow Home Secretary, said: ‘These figures are terrible. The pace at which cases of the Delta variant continue to rise is deeply worrying and is putting the lifting of restrictions at risk.
‘The blame for this lies with the Prime Minister and his reckless refusal to act on Labour’s repeated warnings to secure our borders against Covid and its variants.’
And Layla Moran, Liberal Democrat MP and chair of the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Coronavirus, added: ‘These figures should set alarm bells ringing in government as we approach the 21st June.
‘It is particularly concerning that the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant is above the worst-case scenario modelled by SAGE, with cases estimated to be doubling every 4.5 days in some regions.
‘The government must immediately explain to the public whether this exponential growth suggests the country is in line for a severe third wave, and if so what it is doing to prevent this.’
On plans for June 21 Mr Johnson’s spokesperson said the PM would make his final decision over the weekend: ‘I am not going to get into speculation. The Prime Minister addressed the question yesterday and the vaccines minister spoke about it as well this morning.
‘We are closely looking at the data and assessing against the four tests which we published in the roadmap, particularly on hospitalisations, and we will set out an update on Monday.’
Although figures for the Indian variant specifically are rocketing, numbers for the outbreak overall are increasing more slowly.
Yesterday’s weekly ONS report found that an estimated 96,800 people were coronavirus-positive last week, compared to 85,600 the week before. This was a significantly smaller increase than the near-doubling from 48,500 at May’s end.
An estimated one in 560 people were carrying the virus by June 5, it said – around 0.18 per cent of the population. This compared to 0.08 per cent in Wales, 0.14 in Northern Ireland and an equal 0.18 in Scotland.
The infection rate is significantly higher in North West England, at 0.5 per cent, than in other regions, with all others recording rates of 0.2 or 0.1 per cent.
This is backed up the PHE data that showed 8,288 Indian variant cases in the North West by June 7, compared to 2,325 in London, the second worst affected area. The NW cases were almost half of all those in England.
By age, secondary school pupils had the highest infection rate in the ONS survey, at 0.5 per cent. The rate was 0.4 per cent for 17 to 24-year-olds and became lower with age to 0.1 per cent among the vaccinated over-50s.
The true test of the vaccines will be whether infection rates remain low among older age groups in the coming weeks and, if they do, ministers will likely be satisfied that it is safe to reopen normal society.
Dr Jenny Harries, chief of the UK Health Security Agency, said: ‘Vaccination is our best defence. If you are eligible, we urge you to come forward and be vaccinated. Remember that two doses provide significantly more protection than a single dose.
‘However, while vaccination reduces the risk of severe disease, it does not eliminate it. With data showing that Delta is significantly more transmissible than Alpha, it is just as important as ever to follow public health advice, which has not changed. Get vaccinated, work from home where you can and remember “hands, face, space, fresh air” at all times. These measures work, and they save lives.’
Vaccines are now being offered to everyone over the age of 25 but Mr Zahawi said that supplies of the Pfizer jab, which is being used for everyone under the age of 40 as well as for second doses for around half of older people, were going to be ‘tight’ in the coming weeks as the rollout rattles ahead.
The infection rate is significantly higher in North West England, at 0.5 per cent, than in other regions, with all others recording rates of 0.2 or 0.1 per cent
By age, secondary school pupils had the highest infection rate in the ONS survey, at 0.5 per cent. The rate was 0.4 per cent for 17 to 24-year-olds and became lower with age to 0.1 per cent among the vaccinated over-50s
People in their 20s were invited to book vaccine appointments for the first time this week and clamoured for the jabs with more than a million people getting booked in on Tuesday alone – a one-day record for the NHS.
The minister said on LBC: ‘Every time I’ve said the determining factor in terms of vaccine in arms is supply. And supply remains finite, but it is stable, and Pfizer have done a great job in being consistent on their delivery schedule.’
It is believed that ministers are still considering keeping some curbs in place for a further two to four weeks to buy more time for the vaccine programme amid mounting concern about the spread of the Indian variant.
While an exception is likely to be made for weddings, ministers have become increasingly pessimistic over the course of the week and are now moving closer to a delayed freedom day that could coincide with the start of the school summer holidays.
The Pfizer supply setback comes as a particular blow as it makes the prospect of speeding up the vaccine roll-out to meet demand much more difficult.
Scottish MP Humza Yousaf told Matt Hancock in a letter that supplies of the Pfizer jab are to be ‘particularly tight over the next few weeks’, not just in Scotland but across the UK, according to the i newspaper.
Mr Yousaf’s fears are the result of the updated advice published the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation last month, which said that under-40s should be given Pfizer or Moderna jabs rather than the AstraZeneca equivalent due to concerns over a small risk of blood clots in younger patients.
And with thousands of under-30s now receiving jabs after the vaccine roll-out picked up pace, demand for doses of Pfizer has soared beyond supply levels.
Yesterday, Health Secretary Matt Hancock revealed that the Indian variant now comprises 91 per cent of new infections.
Figures showed Covid-19 case rates have increased across every region in England in the past week. But hospital admissions have only increased fractionally – while deaths are up by just 1.9 per cent on the previous week.
NHS bosses have said vaccines appear to have broken the link between rising cases and hospitalisations. Those that are admitted are often younger and less sick than during previous waves.
According to NHS data published yesterday, more than 85 per cent over-50s in England – considered the age group most at risk – have now had two vaccine doses.
If the NHS in England continues to give doses to 1.3million over-50s a week, everyone in that age bracket should be fully vaccinated by the time all remaining covid curbs are due to ease.
Among younger age groups, 35.5 per cent of those aged 40 to 49 are now estimated to have had both doses, along with 22.6 per cent of those aged 30 to 39.
The number of people falling ill with Covid has more than doubled in a week, a symptom-tracking study warned amid the rapid spread of the Indian variant across the UK
Boris Johnson is expected to decide whether England can go ahead with the full re-opening on June 21 at a meeting in Downing Street on Sunday evening, following the conclusion of the G7 summit in Cornwall.
Then, after flying to Brussels on Monday morning to attend a Nato summit, he will return to London in the evening to address the nation.
The Government is planning to lift the 30-person limit on weddings, Whitehall sources confirmed last night.
But they insisted the Prime Minister is still undecided about the wider lifting of measures including social distancing rules and work-from-home advice.
Yesterday, the UK recorded 7,393 new coronavirus cases and seven deaths within 28 days of a positive test. Infections have risen 63 per cent in the past seven days compared to the week before.
But the number of hospital admissions has remained steady and the average number of deaths each day has stayed below ten.
Dr Jenny Harries, chief executive of the newly-created UK Health Security Agency, said the country was going ‘not quite in the right direction’ and data suggested there would be a further rise in infections in the coming weeks.
But the health chief said the figures suggested that those aged 60 and above are not getting ill because they are ‘doubly vaccinated’.
She added that those appearing in hospital are either unvaccinated or have had a single dose.
The Prime Minister’s spokesman said: ‘The point of the five-week gap between the steps [in the roadmap] is for us to analyse the data. That’s exactly what we’ve been doing, and we will continue to do so… ahead of saying something early next week.’
