Analysis: How Democrats may pull off a redistricting upset
But as states rush to finish their House maps in advance of the rapidly approaching 2022 primary season, a new storyline has emerged: Democrats could well break even or possibly gain an advantage when all of the new lines are finished across the country.
“I had previously calculated that redistricting alone would hand Republicans two new House seats (give or take) in the 2022 midterms, while Democrats would roughly stand pat. (This is before accounting for the likely Republican-leaning national political environment.) Add this map to the mix, though, and Democrats would be poised to gain about three seats nationally and Republicans would be poised to lose around two.”
Now, none of this means that Democrats are suddenly favorites to keep control of the House this fall. They are not. The first midterm election of a president’s term tends to carry double-digit House losses for the party in power — and if that occurs again, Republicans will be in the majority come January 2023.
What it does suggest is that Democrats are surprisingly well-positioned to fight redistricting to (at least) a draw, a scenario that almost no one foresaw at this time last year.
The Point: Even if Republicans retake the majority this November — and they are favorites to do just that — the new congressional lines (if approved) in New York and Pennsylvania could help limit their gains and keep Democrats in the game for 2024 and beyond.
