Top hardline Russian general warns Putin NOT to invade Ukraine and accuses him of ‘criminal policy’

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A top retired Russian general has warned Vladimir Putin not to go to war with Ukraine, accusing the leader of whipping up an ‘artificial’ conflict to distract from his domestic problems.

Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov, 78, penned an open letter titled ‘The Eve of War’ in which he blasted Putin’s ‘criminal policy of provoking a war’ despite Russia not facing any ‘critical threats’.

The rare outburst of internal dissent comes as Emmanuel Macron jets to the Kremlin for crisis talks with Putin, a day after the White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said an invasion could come ‘any day’ at an ‘enormous human cost’.

Ivashov, who has retired from military services and is active in politics as the chairman of the All-Russian Officers’ Assembly, previously served as Putin’s chief of military cooperation in the Ministry of Defence.

In an open letter on the assembly’s website he said he fears Russia will become a ‘pariah of the world community’ if an invasion is launched, and called on Putin to resign.

The decorated general, who was one of the most respected and hawkish generals in the Russian MoD and is known as a hardline nationalist who still champions the Soviet system and is close to the remains of the Communist party.

Since being fired by Putin in 2001 he has become a fierce critic of the Russian president – and has frequently called for him to resign for being too soft and protecting a corrupt elite at the expense of the public, accusing him of ‘crimes against Russia’.

His latest intervention shows that there is at least some opposition to a war with Ukraine within Russia, and comes after a petition was signed by 5,000 citizens demanding Putin call off the conflict.

Ivashov said: ‘As for external threats, they are certainly present. But, according to our expert assessment, they are not currently critical, directly threatening the existence of Russian statehood and its vital interests.’

Commenting on the letter, Stanford Russia expert Michael McFaul, who previously served as the US ambassador to Russia, said: ‘This is a big deal. At one time, General Ivashov was one of the most respected (and hawkish) leaders in the Russian MOD. 

‘Russian generals don’t usually get involved in public policy debates, especially ones like Ivashov.’

The All-Russian Officers’ Assembly is an independent group established in 2003 discusses the role of the Russian military in the state, and is considered a retirement home for former officers with often nationalist views.

In his letter, Ivashov argues that Ukraine has a right to self-defence as an independent nation, and the international backlash to the annexation of Crimea ‘convincingly shows the failure of Russian foreign policy’.

He continued: ‘Attempts to ‘love’ the Russian Federation and its leadership through an ultimatum and threats of the use of force are senseless and extremely dangerous. 

‘The use of military force against Ukraine, firstly, will call into question the existence of Russia itself as a state; secondly, it will forever make Russians and Ukrainians mortal enemies. 

‘Thirdly, there will be tens of thousands of dead young, healthy men on one side and on the other, which will certainly affect the future demographic situation in our dying countries. 

‘On the battlefield, if this happens, Russian troops will face not only Ukrainian military personnel, among whom there will be many Russian guys, but also military personnel and equipment from many NATO countries, and the member states of the alliance will be obliged to declare war on Russia.’

Ivashov added that such an invasion would ‘threaten peace and international security’ and would result in heavy sanctions for Russia.

He said: ‘The president and the government, the Ministry of Defense cannot fail to understand such consequences, they are not so stupid.’

The hardline general then questions why would Putin risk such hostility and conflict, concluding that it is a distraction from the country’s internal problems.

He said: ‘In our opinion, the country’s leadership, realising that it is not capable of leading the country out of the systemic crisis which can lead to an uprising of the people and a change of power in the country, with the support of the oligarchy, corrupt bureaucrats, state media and security forces, decided to activate the political line for the final destruction Russian statehood and the extermination of the country’s indigenous population.

‘And war is the means that will solve this problem in order to retain its anti-national power for a while and preserve the wealth stolen from the people. We cannot suggest any other explanation.’

The remarks come as Putin prepares for talks today with Macron who flew to Moscow in a bid to deescalate the tensions which are threatening an imminent war.

Russia has denied any plans to attack its neighbor, but is urging the US and its allies to bar Ukraine and other ex-Soviet nations from joining NATO, halt weapons deployments there and roll back NATO forces from Eastern Europe. 

Washington and NATO have rejected the demands. 

Macron, who is set to meet in the Kremlin with Russian President Vladimir Putin before visiting Ukraine Tuesday, said last week that his priority is ‘dialogue with Russia and de-escalation’.

Before heading to Moscow, Macron had a call with US President Joe Biden in which they discussed ‘ongoing diplomatic and deterrence efforts in response to Russia’s continued military build-up on Ukraine’s borders, and affirmed their support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity’.  

In an interview with French newspaper Journal du Dimanche published on Sunday, Macron said that ‘we won’t get unilateral gestures but it is indispensable to prevent a degradation of the situation before building confidence gestures and mechanisms’.

‘The geopolitical objective of Russia today is clearly not Ukraine, but to clarify the rules of cohabitation with NATO and the EU,’ Macron said. 

‘The security and sovereignty of Ukraine or any other European state cannot be a subject for compromise, while it is also legitimate for Russia to pose the question of its own security.’ 

US officials have confirmed that Russia has already assembled at least 70 per cent of the military firepower it likely intends to have in place by mid-month to give Putin the option of launching a full-scale invasion.

‘If war breaks out, it will come at an enormous human cost to Ukraine, but we believe that based on our preparations and our response, it will come at a strategic cost to Russia as well,’ national security adviser Jake Sullivan said.

Sullivan did not directly address reports that the White House has briefed lawmakers that a full Russian invasion could lead to the quick capture of Kyiv and potentially result in as many as 50,000 casualties as he made appearances on a trio of Sunday talk shows.

US officials, who discussed internal assessments of the Russian buildup on the condition that they not be identified, sketched out a series of indicators suggesting that Putin intends to start an invasion in the coming weeks, although the size and scale are unclear. 

They stressed that a diplomatic solution appears to remain possible.

Officials pointed to the fact that Russia’s strategic nuclear forces that usually is held each fall was rescheduled for mid-February to March. 

That coincides with what officials see as the most likely window for invasion. 

Last week, Biden administration officials said that intelligence findings showed that the Kremlin had worked up an elaborate plot to fabricate an attack by Ukrainian forces that Russia could use as a pretext to take military action against its neighbor.

Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said Thursday that the scheme included production of a graphic propaganda video that would show staged explosions and use corpses and actors depicting grieving mourners.

‘It could happen as soon as tomorrow or it could take some weeks yet,’ Sullivan said. He added that Putin ‘has put himself in a position with military deployments to be able to act aggressively against Ukraine at any time now.’

Sullivan said that the administration held on to hope that the Russians would move to de-escalate the situation through diplomacy.

‘The key thing is that the United States needs to be and is prepared for any of those contingencies and in lockstep with our allies and partners,’ Sullivan said. ‘We have reinforced and reassured our allies on the eastern flank.’ 

It comes as Germany was accused of being ‘missing in action’ by allies as international tensions continue to mount over Russia’s military build-up on the Ukrainian border.

While other NATO members deploy battlegroups, send tactical supplies and offer more vocal support, the Germans have appeared to draw a line in the sand and refused to offer tangible support.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will travel to the White House next week to reassure Americans that his country stands alongside the United States and other NATO partners in opposing any Russian aggression against Ukraine. 

Scholz has said that Moscow would pay a ‘high price’ in the event of an attack, but has so far failed to supply lethal weapons to Ukraine, bolster its troop numbers in the region or elaborate on any planned sanctions he would take against Vladimir Putin.  

‘The Germans are right now missing in action. They are doing far less than they need to do,’ Sen. Richard Blumenthal, a Democrat and member of the Armed Services Committee, recently told an audience of Ukrainian Americans in his state, Connecticut.

Western intelligence assessments believe Kyiv’s government could fall within two days of an invasion and lead to a humanitarian crisis involving around 5million refugees and more than 50,000 civilian casualties.

Germany’s Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht again ruled out supplying Kyiv with arms, after Ukraine’s embassy in Germany sent a list with specific requests to the foreign and defence ministries in Berlin.

The list included missile defence systems, tools for electronic warfare, night vision goggles, digital radios, radar stations and military ambulances – equipment which, in part, is already in short supply.

Referring to an earlier build-up last year, one European official – speaking on condition of anonymity – told the Washington Post: ‘Our worry would be that you don’t park battle groups… on the border of another country twice and do nothing. 

‘I think that’s the real fear that I have. [Putin’s] now put them all out there. If he does nothing again… what does that say to the wider international community about the might of Russia?’ 

German media reports said Mr Putin – who objects to the idea of the Ukraine being admitted as a Nato member – had a three-step plan to bring Ukraine under a new ‘union state’ including Russia and Belarus, with Moscow as the centre of control.

The report, attributed by the Bild newspaper to a foreign secret service source, said Ukrainian activists will be rounded up and put into camps once a pro-Russian government had been installed. 

It warned that an invasion was currently ‘the most likely scenario’ – adding that it could happen as early as this month as temperatures plummet and allow heavy ordnance and machinery to more easily traverse Ukrainian territory.

In recent months, Russia has conducted a series of joint drills with Belarus and repeatedly sent its nuclear-capable long-range bombers to patrol the skies over its neighbour, which borders Nato members Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.

Belarus’ authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko, who has increasingly relied on the Kremlin’s political and financial support amid bruising Western sanctions triggered by his crackdown on domestic protests, has called for closer defence ties with Moscow and recently offered to host Russian nuclear weapons.

As war fears mounted, Ukrainian authorities launched a series of drills for civilians to prepare for a possible Russian invasion. 

It comes as US military and intelligence officials believe Russia is set to run a major nuclear weapons exercise in the coming weeks as a warning to Nato not to intervene in the event of Putin invading Ukraine, the Financial Times reported. 

General Mark Milley, chair of the joint chiefs, and Avril Haines, director of national intelligence, said on Thursday that Putin was planning to begin the exercises in mid-February, according to a Congressional aide. 

Russia usually holds its annual nuclear exercises in the autumn but the US believes Putin has decided to hold them earlier this year as a show of strength.  

Meanwhile, NATO has warned that Russia is massing nuclear-capable missiles along with 30,000 troops in Belarus.

Jens Stoltenberg, NATO general secretary, said earlier this week that Russia has already deployed thousands of troops including Spetsnaz special forces, along with Iskander missiles that can be tipped with nukes, fighter jets, and S-400 anti-aircraft systems.