Covid now behind just one in 150 deaths, ONS figures show

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Covid is now behind fewer than one in 150 deaths in England and Wales, official statistics revealed today, the lowest number since before the first lockdown last March. 

Office for National Statistics data showed 66 out of 9,860 death certificates listed the virus as the underlying cause over the week ending May 21 — or 0.66 per cent of the total.

For comparison, flu and pneumonia were blamed for four times more fatalities after they were listed as the underlying cause on 287 certificates. The Covid death toll was also lower than in early September before the second wave spiralled out of control, when 69 deaths were blamed on the virus. 

Every region in England went at least one day without registering a single death from the virus over this period, data showed. The North East, East Midlands, West Midlands and South West had at least three days where they registered no Covid fatalities.

The NHS Confederation union said today’s figures were ‘reassuring’ but warned there was still ‘real concern’ rising cases could lead to more hospitalisations.

Some SAGE scientists are urging Boris Johnson to push back plans to dump face masks and social distancing amid rising cases of the Indian variant, warning ‘mini Covid volcanoes’ could erupt in local hospitals. It takes around three weeks for someone who has caught the virus to become severely ill and sadly die from the disease.

But Oxford University professor and top Government adviser Sir John Bell today called on ministers not to ‘scamper down rabbit holes when there’s a new variant’. He said they should instead watch hospitalisation and deaths figures, which the jabbing drive aimed to prevent. 

Britain’s speedy vaccination drive — which has already jabbed almost three quarters of adults and offered at least one dose to everyone vulnerable to the virus — is thought to be driving the low death figures for the virus.  

It comes after Britain recorded zero Covid deaths yesterday for the first time since last July, but cases rose by 27 per cent after another 3,165 were spotted by swabbers.

Statisticians at the national agency sort all death certificates registered in England and Wales to record those that mention Covid and whether it was the main cause of death or the person had it alongside another illness. 

The ONS figures lag behind the Department of Health’s daily total because it can take around two weeks to formally register a fatality, creating a delay due to the disease. 

Death certificates list underlying factors  — the conditions thought to be responsible for the fatality — but also mention other conditions thought to have contributed to deaths but not to be the main factor behind the fatality.

Overall, Covid was mentioned on 107 death certificates in the latest weeks. This was a dip of 29 per cent on the previous week and accounted for 1.1 per cent of all fatalities registered. At the peak of the second wave, in the week ending January 29, Covid-19 accounted for 45.7 per cent of registered deaths.

Deaths from all causes were three per cent below the five-year average for the number expected at this time of year. Experts said this would happen because people with other illnesses that would have killed them around now had already died of Covid. 

The South East had the highest number of Covid deaths in the latest week (22), followed by the West Midlands (16), London (14) and the East of England (12).

The North West — which is experiencing an outbreak of the Indian variant — recorded eight deaths from the virus in this week, the sixth lowest out of England’s nine regions. But experts said it can take around three weeks for someone who has the virus to succumb to the disease, suggesting it is still too early to see whether the mutant strain is driving up deaths.

The smallest number of deaths from the virus was recorded in the South West, after four were recorded in the latest week data is available for.

Dr Layla McCay, the director of policy at the NHS Confederation, said today’s figures were reassuring but that the ‘race is not yet won’.

‘Given predictions of a summer wave of infections, the Government must now use all available data to consider carefully whether 21 June is the right date for lifting all restrictions,’ she warned.

‘It is of real concern that cases are climbing quickly, and our members are increasingly worried that this will lead to more hospital admissions.’

Debate is still raging over whether the final stage of England’s unlocking can go ahead amid concerns over the spread of the Indian variant.

But Downing Street has indicated the Prime Minister still sees nothing in the data to suggest the plan will be delayed. Whitehall sources say no decision will be taken until June 14.

A No 10 spokesman said: ‘The Prime Minister has said on a number of occasions that we haven’t seen anything in the data but we will continue to look at the data, we will continue to look at the latest scientific evidence as we move through June towards June 21.’

Sir John intervened in the debate, telling BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that Britain can’t keep ‘scampering down rabbit holes’ every time there is a new variant.

The Oxford University medical expert, who has advised the Government on Covid tests and vaccines, suggested the country must take a leap of faith and put trust in its world-beating vaccination rollout.

Sir John becomes the highest profile adviser to call for ministers to stick with the roadmap and bring an end to social distancing laws on June 21’s Freedom Day.

‘I think we do need to keep our eye on hospitalisations, serious disease and deaths, which is really what we are trying to manage,’ he said.

‘If we scamper down a rabbit hole every time we see a new variant we are going to spend a long time huddled away — so I think we need to get a bit of balance into the discussion and keep our eyes on the serious disease we are trying to prevent.’

The Oxford expert also urged ministers to back rolling out the vaccine in other nations, to get outbreaks under control and reduce the risk of vaccine-busting variants emerging. 

The Prime Minister is expected to make a statement from Downing Street this morning to iron out the Government’s views on June 21 unlocking.

Mr Johnson is not expected to commit to the reopening or to delaying it, but to drop hints about the Government’s view. Whitehall sources say no decision will be taken until June 14 at the earliest.

Sir John took to the airwaves to warn that Britain cannot run scared from Covid variants if it is to get out of lockdown.

Asked about the zero Covid deaths recorded yesterday, he said this ‘looks pretty good’.

‘Now there’s always of course a lag in terms of deaths because people get Covid and they don’t die immediately so we have to be a bit careful about that,’ he warned.

‘But as far as I can see the numbers don’t look too intimidating to me and I think we need to let them play out another couple of weeks.’

He added: ‘I think the Government’s taken the wise approach to this before we make a decision on the next reduction of the lockdown but I am pretty encouraged by what I see.’

The intervention comes as Sir John and 11 other scientists publish a letter ahead of the G7 summit in Cornwall this month calling on ministers to support the vaccine roll out in other countries.

The open letter warns without this action Britain risks importing dangerous variants from abroad as the virus remains out of control in other areas.

‘Leaders from the G7 countries must take decisive action now if we are to bring this pandemic under control,’ the scientists which also include Wellcome Trust director Sir Jeremy Farrar and the director of the Oxford vaccine group Professor Sue Clemens write.

 ‘Without a globally coordinated approach… we are merely putting out fires in one part of the world as another suffers.

 ‘The result is a pandemic that continues on – with millions more lives lost and a real threat that any progress made to date is completely undone by a new variant that renders vaccines ineffective.’