Britain ‘WON’T need to lockdown’ this winter to stop new Covid wave, say scientists

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Britain will not need another lockdown to stop another Covid wave this winter, scientists have said after official data showed the outbreak is shrinking.

The Office for National Statistics claimed 722,300 people were infected on any given day in the seven-day spell ending July 31 — the equivalent of one in 75 people. This marked a 15 per cent drop on the week before, when the toll was upwards of 850,000. 

And SAGE member ‘Professor Lockdown’ Neil Ferguson — who’s grim modelling led to the first lockdown — said he now believes the pandemic is something the UK will be able to manage with vaccines rather than ‘crisis measures’.

He told The Times: ‘I think it’s unlikely we will need a new lockdown or even social distancing measures of the type we’ve had so far.’

Fellow Government scientific advisor Professor John Edmunds, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, agreed, saying he believes the national health service will most likely be able to cope with the numbers of cases expected in the winter.

He said: ‘I suspect we won’t have to [impose any more]. The pinch point has always been pressure on the NHS and though it will be awkward for the NHS, so there will be pressure, I very much doubt they won’t be able to cope.’ 

But Boris Johnson has pressed ahead with plans to reintroduce restrictions by authorising contingency plans for ‘firebreak lockdowns’ should the NHS be overwhelmed cases by the end of the year.

Sources within Whitehall today confirmed the government is prepared for ‘local, regional or national’ lockdowns in order to protect the health service from being swamped and reaching breaking point with cases.

The i reports the Prime Minister has given the green light to plans for ‘firebreak lockdowns’ should Covid cases cripple the NHS later this year. 

Although scientists remain confident of the efficacy of Britain’s vaccines, Whitehall sources say fears persist over surging flu infections, a potential NHS staffing crisis and a rise in positive infections. 

The senior Downing Street source said: ‘The Government believes it has got to grips with the pandemic following the vaccine rollout

‘Barring a new vaccine-beating strain, fears over a rise in infections similar to that seen last autumn are actually outweighed by other issues like an NHS staffing crisis and the likely resurgence in flu infections, and other respiratory diseases.

‘On top of Covid infections, these factors could tip the NHS back to the brink and force more lockdowns.’ 

It is understood that any subsequent lockdown would resemble the nation’s four-week ‘firebreak’ lockdown during November 2020.

The return of draconian restrictions would likely be short and during ‘school holidays and over Christmas’, the source adds.

Britain’s Covid outbreak is still flattening off, according to official statistics that dismissed hopes that the worst of the third wave was over.

Department of Health bosses posted another 31,808 cases on Friday, up seven per cent on the 29,622 recorded last week.

The number of victims dying with the virus – a measure which lags weeks behind infections – also increased by 35.3 per cent, jumping from 71 last week to 92.

But hospital admissions, which always turn before fatalities, continue to fall. There were 778 people hospitalised with Covid on Monday, down 16.2 per cent on the previous week.  

The figures come as leading scientists warn achieving herd immunity against Covid is looking ever-increasingly impossible, with neither vaccines nor natural infections triggering ‘perfect’ protection.

Professor Paul Hunter, an infectious diseases expert at the University of East Anglia, said immunity against SARS-CoV-2 – the virus that causes Covid – is likely to be short-lived.

But separate official data offered a glimmer of hope, revealing England’s shrinking Covid outbreak towards the end of July was real and marked the first time cases had genuinely fallen since the third wave took off.

No10’s top scientists claimed the R rate — which shows how quickly the coronavirus is spreading — has dipped below one for the first time in 12 weeks. The UK Health Security Agency said the reproduction rate is between 0.8 and 1.1. For comparison, last week’s figure stood at between 1.1 and 1.4.

Meanwhile, random swab-testing data — used by ministers to keep tabs on the size of the outbreak — estimated the number of infected people has also dropped for the first time since May.

Britain’s total infections have now risen up to 6,014,023, while 130,178 people who have tested positive have lost their life to the virus since the start of the pandemic.   

Just under 47million adults in Britain (88.8 per cent) have now had a jab after another 35,500 first doses were dished out yesterday. 

And 39million (73.8 per cent) are fully protected after NHS staff and volunteers put 172,692 second doses into people’s arms.