Justin Trudeau wins a third term and victory for the Liberals

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Justin Trudeau has hailed his ‘clear mandate’ after securing a third term in Canada’s general election – but the prime minister’s victory has been described as ‘bittersweet’ as his snap election gamble failed to yield an outright majority. 

The 49-year-old beamed on stage last night as he hugged his children Xavier and Ella-Grace and kissed his wife Sophie, 46, at the Liberal’s victory party in Montreal, Quebec.     

Trudeau’s victory lap comes after a grueling campaign that saw a new photo of the PM in blackface emerge on the eve of the election, as well as accusations that the poll was a cynical power grab amid the pandemic.  

The Liberals were projected to win 158 seats in the latest results – gaining just one seat on 2019’s election, and 12 short of the 170 required for a majority in the House of Commons. 

His nearest nearest rivals, the Conservatives, were predicted to lose two seats with 119. The left-wing New Democrats gained one seat to 25, the Quebec-based Bloc Québécois added another two seats to 34, and the Greens dropped a seat to two. 

Trudeau hailed his victory as a judgment on his government’s performance during the pandemic and also highlighted his party’s work on climate, affordable homes and childcare.   

‘You are sending us back to work with a clear mandate to get Canada through this pandemic and to the brighter days ahead,’ he said.

‘You have given this government and this parliament clear direction,’ the PM added.   

However, Trudeau entered the election leading a stable minority that was not under threat of being toppled and the minor victory only serves to underline his failure to consolidate power.  

‘Trudeau lost his gamble to get a majority so I would say this is a bittersweet victory for him,’ said Daniel Béland, a political science professor at McGill University in Montreal.

‘Basically we are back to square one, as the new minority parliament will look like the previous one. 

‘Trudeau and the Liberals saved their skin and will stay in power, but many Canadians who didn’t want this late summer, pandemic election are probably not amused about the whole situation,’ he said. 

In addition, Trudeau faces yet more scrutiny on his decision to wear blackface and a turban at an Arabian Nights-themed party in the 1990s. He apologized for the controversy when it first came to light in 2019 but did not address it following this week’s latest publication. 

The result suggests there will be little change in approach from the Liberals, who racked up record levels of debt and massive budget deficits fighting COVID-19.

Trudeau, who promised tens of billions of dollars in new investments during the campaign, will once again rely on the support of the smaller left-leaning New Democrats, who want even more social spending.

‘We’re getting more of the same as what we had before. I don’t think markets are going to react either way,’ said Martin Pelletier, senior portfolio manager at Trivest Wealth Counsel.

The Canadian dollar was trading slightly higher at 1.2766 to the greenback, or 78.33 U.S. cents, in Asian trading on Tuesday. 

‘The message Canadians are sending loud and clear is they like the direction the government is taking the country in but they’re not quite sure they want to give anybody carte blanche,’ former close Trudeau advisor Gerry Butts told the Canadian Broadcasting Corp.

Around 800,000 mail-in ballots will be counted on Tuesday, which could affect the final tally in some seats.

The result is a blow to the right-leaning Conservatives, whose leader Erin O’Toole had tried to take a more centrist approach to attract progressive voters.

For the second election in a row the party won a larger share of the popular vote than the Liberals, who nevertheless triumphed with their lock on major urban centers.

O’Toole, who said he was sure Trudeau plans to call another election within two years, said he had called the Liberal leader and challenged him to put the unity of Canada first.

‘I told him if he thinks he can threaten Canadians with another election in 18 months, the Conservative Party will be ready,’ he told supporters in his home town of Oshawa, east of Toronto.  

The opposition was relentless in accusing Trudeau of calling an unnecessary early vote – two years before the deadline – for his own personal ambition.

Trudeau bet Canadians did not want a Conservative government during a pandemic. 

Canada is now among the most fully vaccinated countries in the world and Trudeau’s government spent hundreds of billions of dollars to prop up the economy amid lockdowns. 

Trudeau argued that the Conservatives’ approach, which has been skeptical of lockdowns and vaccine mandates, would be dangerous and says Canadians need a government that follows science.

Conservative leader Erin O’Toole did not require his party’s candidates to be vaccinated and would not say how many were unvaccinated. 

O’Toole described vaccination as a personal health decision, but a growing number of vaccinated Canadians are increasingly upset with those who refuse to get vaccinated.

Trudeau supports making vaccines mandatory for Canadians to travel by air or rail, something the Conservatives oppose. 

And Trudeau has pointed out that Alberta, run by a Conservative provincial government, is in crisis.

Alberta Premier Jason Kenney, an ally of O’Toole, said the province might run out of beds and staff for intensive care units within days. 

Kenney apologized for the dire situation and is now reluctantly introducing a vaccine passport and imposing a mandatory work-from-home order two months after lifting nearly all restrictions.

‘Hubris led Trudeau to call the election. He and the Liberals won the election but lost the prize they were seeking,’ said Nelson Wiseman, a political science professor at the University of Toronto. 

‘This is only a great night for the Liberals because two weeks ago it appeared they would lose government outright – something they could not fathom before they gambled on an election.’ 

Wiseman said the Conservatives were hurt by the situation in Alberta. 

‘The explosion of the pandemic in Alberta in the past 10 days undermined O’Toole’s compliments of the Alberta Conservatives on how they had handled the pandemic and reinforced Trudeau’s argument for mandatory vaccinations,’ he said.

A Conservative win would have represented a rebuke of Trudeau against a politician with a fraction of his name recognition. 

O’Toole, 47, is a military veteran, former lawyer and a member of Parliament for nine years.

‘Canadians did not give Mr Trudeau the majority mandate he wanted,’ O’Toole said.

O’Toole said he was more determined than ever to continue but his party might dump him after it dumped the previous leader who failed to beat Trudeau in 2019.

O’Toole advertised himself a year ago as a ‘true-blue Conservative.’ 

He became Conservative Party leader with a pledge to ‘take back Canada,’ but immediately started working to push the party toward the political center.

O’Toole’s strategy, which included disavowing positions held dear by his party’s base on issues such as climate change, guns and balanced budgets, was designed to appeal to a broader cross section of voters in a country that tends to be far more liberal than its southern neighbor.

The son of a long-time politician has faced criticism he will say and do anything to get elected.

Whether moderate Canadians believed O’Toole is the progressive conservative he claims to be and whether he alienated traditional Conservatives became central questions of the campaign.

Adrian Archambault, a 53-year-old Vancouver resident, voted Liberal and said he didn’t mind the election was held during a pandemic. 

He noted provincial elections have also happened during the pandemic.

‘Everybody has been so preoccupied with COVID the last few years it wasn’t maybe a bad thing to sort of do a re-check,’ he said.

Trudeau’s legacy includes embracing immigration at a time when the U.S. and other countries closed their doors. 

He also legalized cannabis nationwide and brought in a carbon tax to fight climate change. 

And he preserved free trade deal with the U.S. and Mexico amid threats by former U.S. President Donald Trump to scrap the agreement.

Barack Obama and ex-Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton tweeted support for Trudeau. 

There wasn’t a Trump endorsement of O’Toole. 

Conservative campaign co-chair Walied Soliman said there is no alignment whatsoever between O’Toole and Trumpism. 

Soliman said earlier in the day holding Trudeau to a minority government would be a win for O’Toole.