Mexico, South Africa and Brazil are set to be taken off Covid red list
Mexico, South Africa and Brazil could be taken off Covid red list while Thailand and Philippines stay in the balance as up to 18 countries may still suffer from strict travel restrictions
Data analyst Tim White played down hopes as few as 9 countries would stay redDespite cases dipping in Thailand, thinks presence of Beta means it will remainTravellers arriving from these destinations must pay £2,385 for hotel quarantine
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Mexico, South Africa and Brazil could be removed from the Covid red list today – but other popular destinations including Thailand are still in the balance.
There had been hopes ministers could dramatically slash the current total of 54 red list countries to fewer than 10, but a new analysis suggests 18 will remain.
Data expert Tim White predicted Mexico would reopen for quarantine-free travel from tomorrow thanks to a reduction in case numbers compared to last week and an apparent lack of variants.
Despite cases also dipping in Thailand, Mr White expects it will remain red due to the presence of the Beta variant, while he forecast the same for the Philippines because of its lack of genomic sequencing infrastructure.
Mr White also named South Africa as a likely candidate to move off the red list – removing the need for travellers arriving in England to pay £2,385 for hotel quarantine.
The country is currently welcoming visitors who have proof of a negative PCR within 72 hours of departure, while Mexico has no testing or quarantine requirements.
Brazil, meanwhile, requires anyone who has been in the UK within the last 14 days to quarantine for the same period upon arrival. It has suspended direct flights to and from the UK.
A graph showing current case figures for Brazil, Mexico and South Africa
There are currently 54 countries on the red list, such as Mexico, Cuba, all of mainland South America, and southern and eastern Africa. Pictured, passengers queue for the arrival hall at Heathrow Airport’s Terminal 5
A decision on which countries to remove from England’s red list is expected to be made today following a meeting of Government ministers.
The devolved administrations in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland set their own travel rules but have recently mirrored announcements made in Westminster.
Travellers who are not fully vaccinated must self-isolate at home for 10 days when arriving from a country not on the red list, but those who have been jabbed are exempt under new rules introduced this week.
The removal from the red list of Mexico and South Africa would send ‘a confidence boost across the sector and across consumers’, according to travel expert, Paul Charles of the PC Agency.
Mr Charles said it is ‘very hard to justify’ why any countries are on the list ‘when there are no new variants of concern there’.
He continued: ‘That’s why Ireland have removed every country from their red list because they see no threat. So the UK should be following that example.’
The London-based World Travel and Tourism Council, which represents private firms, said the sector’s recovery will continue to be ‘sluggish’ due to policies such as the UK’s red list.
The organisation predicted that travel and tourism’s contribution to global gross domestic product (GDP) is set to rise by less than a third in 2021.
However, Covid data analyst Tim White described reports that the list could be cut to just nine as ‘optimistic’.
Mexico ‘looks certain to be removed’ but Thailand ‘may well stay red’, Mr White predicted.
The Government may use the travel update to confirm the date when fully vaccinated people arriving in England will be able to use a cheaper lateral flow test rather than a PCR version for their day-two test.
The Department for Transport said on Monday that this policy will be implemented ‘later in October’, adding that the Government ‘aims to have it in place for when people return from half-term breaks’.
Meanwhile, families may still be forced to spend £75 on PCR tests when returning from holidays this half-term, it was previously claimed.
Anyone arriving in the UK from a location in the red tier must spend 11 nights in a quarantine hotel, which costs £2,285 for solo travellers (file image)
The day two return swabs were supposed to be scrapped at the end of the month in favour of cheaper and quicker lateral flow tests for the fully vaccinated.
While the Government says it ‘aims’ to have it in place in time for half-term, a Cabinet source said ministers had been urged to keep the PCRs due to fears over variants.
The move would be a major blow for millions of holidaymakers and the beleaguered travel industry which would be aiming to recoup pandemic losses during half term.
‘There’s a very real chance PCRs will still have to be taken after half-term holidays,’ the source told The Sun. In a dig at Health Secretary Sajid Javid, they added: ‘Those who claim to be great unlockers have been captured quickly by the health officials.’
But Department for Transport bosses told MailOnline categorically it would replace day two PCR tests with lateral flows by the end of October.
Mr Javid had doubled down on his commitment to scrap as many remaining Covid curbs as possible.
On his 100th day in the job, he told the Tory conference in Manchester that his party stood for ‘freeing things up’ rather than locking them down.
But Mr Javid is said to be concerned that relying on lateral flow tests – which unlike PCR don’t need to be verified in a lab – could encourage lying about positive results.
He has floated the idea of people taking their rapid test in a video call while supervised by a health professional, according to reports.