Covid Plan B is needed now to stop NHS ‘winter meltdown’, say Government scientists
Covid Plan B needed now to stop ‘winter meltdown’ and reimposing face masks and WFH won’t be problematic, No10 advisers say… but Sajid Javid insists Christmas WILL be ‘safe’ even without fresh restrictions ‘because cases should slump to just 5,000-a-day’
No10 advisers warned current case rate ‘unacceptable’ as they called for curbs ahead of winter to shield NHSPlan B would be prudent and non-disruptive safeguard in winter and jabs alone ‘not enough’, they claimedComes despite growing optimism in No10 that epidemic is due to shrink due to natural immunity and boosters
<!–
<!–
<!–<!–
<!–
(function (src, d, tag){
var s = d.createElement(tag), prev = d.getElementsByTagName(tag)[0];
s.src = src;
prev.parentNode.insertBefore(s, prev);
}(“https://www.dailymail.co.uk/static/gunther/1.17.0/async_bundle–.js”, document, “script”));
<!–
DM.loadCSS(“https://www.dailymail.co.uk/static/gunther/gunther-2159/video_bundle–.css”);
<!–
Social distancing and masks need to be reimposed to avoid a ‘meltdown in the middle of winter’ and save Christmas, several Government scientists warned today.
They said the current infection rate was ‘unacceptable’ and claimed that vaccines alone were not enough to control Covid during the colder months.
It comes despite growing optimism among No10’s modellers who say daily cases could plummet to just 5,000 next month without any restrictions, due to growing natural immunity and booster jabs.
But Professor Peter Openshaw, a member of an influential subcommittee of SAGE, said enacting ‘Plan B’ now would be a ‘sensible’ safeguard that’s ‘not very disruptive’.
Professor Adam Finn, who advises ministers on Covid jabs, went a step further, claiming compulsory masks and other curbs were needed ‘to get things under control’.
But Health Secretary Sajid Javid has promised a ‘normal Christmas’ this year as long as over-50s and vulnerable Britons get their booster vaccines.
During a round of interviews this morning: ‘The facts right now are that we don’t think the data requires us to move to Plan B.’
Ministers have taken confidence from unusually optimistic SAGE modelling, which estimates the epidemic will shrink or stay well below pervious waves this winter.
Hopes were raised last night that Britain could avoid a winter health crisis as data from Israel shows booster jabs can significantly reduce cases and hospitalisations.
The country, which has led the way in vaccinations, rolled out boosters when immunity from the first two jabs began to wane in the summer. Almost half of its population has now been given a third shot and last week, hospitalisations had halved compared to the previous month.
The Government’s winter contingency plans include bringing back masks and working from home. A lockdown has been described as an absolute ‘last resort’
Calls for Plan B come after No10’s modellers estimated daily cases could plummet to just 5,000 next month due to growing natural immunity and booster jabs. These charts show the impact of returning to normal level of social mixing in three months (bottom) versus remaining cautious for a year – and the impact this would have on infections (left), admissions (middle) and deaths (right). The models show cases plummeting by November in both scenarios thanks to natural immunity but rising in spring (bottom) when vaccine protection is expected to wane
Professor Peter Openshaw (left), a member of an influential subcommittee of SAGE , said enacting ‘Plan B’ now would be a ‘sensible’ safeguard that’s ‘not very disruptive’. Professor Adam Finn (right), who advises ministers on Covid jabs, went a step further, claiming compulsory masks and other curbs were needed ‘to get things under control’
Professor Openshaw, who sits on the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), said it would be prudent to go with Plan B now.
He told BBC’s Radio 4 Today Programme: ‘I don’t think it’s a binary go for Plan B or nothing, it’s very clear that the measures that are in included in Plan B are sensible and not very disruptive
‘It’s not problematic to give clear leadership about the use of face masks, and working at home if you can is also not particularly disruptive for many people.
‘Those measures are likely to lead to a pretty good reduction in the really unacceptable number of cases that we’ve got at the moment.
‘To my mind, the introduction of vaccine passports is also fine – it’s been accepted very easily in most other western European countries.
‘It’s very sensible, if you were going into a crowded indoor space and knew everyone there had been fully vaccinated and perhaps had had a rapid test on the day, you’d feel much more secure about going into that space.’
It comes as a record 325,000 people got their booster jab in a single day, while more than 800,000 people over three days had a third jab as queues again formed at centres across the country
Professor Openshaw added: ‘What we’re facing at the moment is unacceptable we’ve got roughly one in 55 people infected, which is an astonishingly high rate compared to most other west European countries.
‘This is connected with the lack of clear messaging about sensible measures that we should all be taking in order to reduce the spread of infection.’
His comments came after Professor Finn, a member of the Joint Committee of Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), made a case for Plan B on Sunday.
Speaking to Sky News, He said that he would ‘like to re-emphasise the fact’ that the vaccine alone might not be enough to protect the NHS this winter.
‘We do need to have people using lateral flow tests, avoiding contact with large numbers of people in enclosed spaces, using masks, all of those things now need to happen if we’re going to stop this rise and get things under control soon enough to stop a real meltdown in the middle of the winter.’
Several other SAGE-affiliated experts have publicly lobbied for the Government to move to Plan B, warning that it risks sleepwalking into another crisis.
But the Health Secretary voiced optimism today as he said there was nothing in the Covid data to panic about yet.
Asked whether he thinks Christmas is ‘safe’, he told LBC Radio: ‘I think it is as long as we do what we all need to do, everyone’s got a role to play in this.
‘We all want a fantastic Christmas and we can ensure that by getting out there and getting our vaccines.’
Mr Javid said people taking personal precautions should be enough to see the country through winter without restrictions.
He added: ‘It’s getting darker, we can see it’s getting colder, we will spend more time indoors, and so we should think about hand hygiene, about getting tested regularly, especially if you’re going to meet your more vulnerable… perhaps an elderly relative or someone – so if we can do all that, I’m sure that we’re going to have a great Christmas.’
Mr Javid rejected call to move to Plan B now, adding: ‘The facts right now are that we don’t think the data requires us to move to Plan B.
‘I think it’s right and proper that we set out what those contingency measures… what Plan B would look like and the criteria (on) whether we move or not, but, right here and now, it remains the right plan, but again, I couldn’t appeal more strongly to people to play their part in Plan A, and top of the list, as I say, are the vaccines.’
Speaking to BBC Breakfast, Mr Javid doubled down on his promise of a ‘normal Christmas’.
‘For all those people like me that are hoping and planning for a normal Christmas – which I do by the way, I think that’s where we’ll be, we’ll have a normal Christmas – if we want let’s just keep playing our part,’ he said.
Only around 4.5million (green line) out of the 9.3million eligible people (blue line) in England have received the crucial third dose, prompting ministers to urge people to come forward for their inoculations
Hopes were raised last night that Britain could avoid a winter health crisis as data from Israel shows booster jabs can significantly reduce cases and hospitalisations
The Government is believed to have taken huge confidence from SAGE modelling of the winter crisis which found that the crisis should shrink or at least stay well below previous peaks even without reimposing curbs.
One model, by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, found Covid cases should slump in November by around 85 per cent to just 5,000 per day by Christmas.
The current rise in cases is mostly being driven by children who are largely unvaccinated and because so many youngsters are getting infected, some SAGE modellers expect infections to run out of steam in soon when they achieve a higher level of natural immunity.
The October half term, which for most schools starts today, is also expected to act like a natural firebreaker and bring down case numbers.
The LSHTM model suggests that cases will soon peak before falling steeply in the winter months – even without the Government’s Plan B. Other unpublished models have also shown similar drops, with experts indicating that cases could fall to around 5,000 cases a day before Christmas, The Telegraph reported.
SAGE scientist Professor John Edmunds, the chief scientist behind the LSHTM model, told the paper: ‘When we were doing the work about two weeks ago, the Health Secretary had made it very clear that the government was not planning to introduce Plan B in the near future.
‘Our model was projecting that cases would start to decline some time in the autumn. However, the model also suggests that cases may start to climb again in the spring, due to a combination of waning immunity and increased contacts.’
It comes as a record 325,000 people got their booster jab in a single day, while more than 800,000 people had a third dose over three days as queues again formed at centres across the country.
The Government is coming under increasing pressure to implement Plan B after daily cases rose beyond 50,000 last week, while hospital admissions increased to more than 1,000.
Much of the current wave is being driven by high case rates in children, with scientists expecting the ‘children’s epidemic’ to run out of steam soon as immunity in youngsters increases, both through infection and vaccination.
Meanwhile, unvaccinated NHS staff are set to be told to get their Covid jabs or lose their jobs under plans being considered by the Government.
Some 100,000 healthcare workers — or seven per cent of NHS employees — are still yet to show up for even their first dose.
But Mr Javid admitted today he was ‘leaning towards’ making the jabs compulsory for all NHS workers. He said those who had failed to get even their first dose were leaving seriously ill patients at risk of catching and dying from the virus.
Care home staff are already required to get the Covid vaccine to work in the sector, with all expected to be jabbed by November 11.
But this has sparked uproar in the care sector which warns many homes will be forced to close because they won’t be able to find enough vaccinated workers.
It is feared a ‘no jab, no job’ policy could exacerbate staffing shortages in the NHS, with thousands of doctors and nurses positions still unfilled.
When asked whether Covid vaccines will be made compulsory for NHS workers, Mr Javid told Sky News: ‘I’m leaning towards doing it.
‘There’s around 100,000 that are not (vaccinated in the NHS) at this point but what we saw with the care sector is that when we announced the policy… then we saw many more people come forward and do the right thing and get vaccinated.
‘That’s what I hope, if we can do the same thing with the NHS, we will see.’
He added: ‘If they haven’t got vaccinated by now then there is an issue about patient safety and that’s something the Government will take very seriously.’
No final decision on the plans has been made, and Mr Javid said it would take ‘some time’ to go through parliament — giving people time to get jabbed.
But he added: ‘I don’t want to put a timeframe on it but it wouldn’t be months and months.’
On Times radio, Mr Javid said: ‘We’ve been very clear and open about this, working with our friends in the NHS, and the reason for this is if you’re working in the NHS, that fantastic work you’re doing every day, you yourself are more susceptible to this virus because you’re just much more likely to come into contact with it.
‘But also the people that you’re looking after are more vulnerable and that’s why they’re in hospital, they’ve got health needs, and this is about protecting them and protecting yourself.’
NHS leaders have a ‘mixed’ view on compulsory vaccines for NHS workers, Dr Layla McCay, director of policy at the NHS Confederation, said.
She told Times Radio: ‘We’ve spoken to our members about this, and it’s a bit of a mixed picture because most of them agree that in some ways, mandating the vaccine could be quite helpful to make sure that more people get the vaccine.
‘But on the other hand, if some people decide they don’t want the vaccine that could lead to staff recruitment and retention problems and we’re going into this incredibly challenging winter.
‘If we start to lose staff during this time that could be incredibly challenging, so it’s a it’s a real balance.’
